Cosmic Rays and Global Warming Cosmic Rays and Global Warming A.D.Erlykin 1,2, G. Gyalai 3, K. Kudela 3, T. Sloan 4 and A.W. Wolfendale 2 A.D.Erlykin 1,2, G. Gyalai 3, K. Kudela 3, T. Sloan 4 and A.W. Wolfendale 2 1. Lebedev, Moscow 2. University, Durham 3. Academy, Kosice 4. University, Lancaster 1. Lebedev, Moscow 2. University, Durham 3. Academy, Kosice 4. University, Lancaster 21 st ECRS Kosice, 2008

Low cloud cover anomalies and CR intensity (Huancayo) – Svensmark (2007)

Global monthly cloud anomalies (Svensmark, 2007) a : high clouds (<440 h Pa) b : middle (440 – 680 h Pa) c : low (>680 h Pa) cloud anomalies (%) cosmic rays (%) year Red Cosmic Rays (Huancayo) Blue Cloud cover (b) (a) (c)

A Basic Problem for LCC, CR correlation Typical Cumulus Typical Cumulus ( 10m) ( 1m) sharp transition diffuse transition 1km Much of CR-induced cloud will be below ( and above ) the existing cloud – and will not contribute to the measured LCC. 0.4km

Peak to peak 11 year cycle in NM data vs VRCO compared with ionization calculations of Usoskin and Kovaltsov (2006). Peak to peak 11 year cycle in NM data vs VRCO compared with ionization calculations of Usoskin and Kovaltsov (2006).

Dip depth vs VRCO NM Us. et al.

Ions as condensation centres for clouds ? CR produce ~ 3 ion pairs cm -3 s -1 in the lower atmosphere. Lifetime is ~ 50sec, so ~ 150cm -3. Clouds have ~ 100 droplets cm -3 so a link would appear to be obvious. But Supersaturations in atmosphere far too low for ions to be at an advantage. Aerosols (salt particles, dust, industrial emissions…) dominate. Sizes  (10 ±2 ). ~ ~

Z = 0 Z = 1000 Effect of charge and radius on supersaturation. 5 x g of dissolved salt. Effect of charge and radius on supersaturation. 5 x g of dissolved salt.

Charges on drops A literature survey gives the following mean charges (e) in the normal atmosphere: Can be much higher in thunderclouds.

Evidence from radioactive ‘events’ Chernobyl ~ ~ April 26, Mt of fall-out. No increase in cloud cover.  (ions cloud droplets)  3% ~

CC anomaly (%)

Nuclear Bomb Tests Eg. BRAVO - Bikini Atoll, March 1, ~ 15 Mt radioactive particles,  300 miles from Ground Zero, dose rate ~ 100 Rh -1, after 4 days. Yields ions cm -3 s -1 Averaging over space and time and allowing for size distribution yields.   ~

Radon Radon is an important contributor to atmospheric ionization over land. Indian ‘hot spots’, particularly in the SW. Scans of low CC over two regions show no excess and  25%

Cosmic rays or Solar Irradiance ? Evidence from the power spectra SSN

CR and its power spectrum

Low Cloud Cover

Temperature Changes

CR – change over last 40 years too small to affect temperature. CR – change over last 40 years too small to affect temperature.

Different responses of clouds to solar input - Voiculescu et al. (2006) Faction of Globe having correlation of CC with UV or CR ionization (+ correln. minus – correln.)

Time dependence of cloud cover : ‘Extended Edited Cloud Report Archive’ (Warren & Hahn via Norris, 2004), in comparison with Climax CR rate.

Cloud Top Pressure Extra solar energy at SSN max. increases cloud heights – and increases HCC. Just as expected for SI – opposite to expectation for Cosmic Ray Ionization.

Conclusions 1. Cloud Geometry – saturation. 2. Radon, Chernobyl & Bomb tests – no signal. 3. Charges on condensation nuclei far too small. 4. No change of dip with CR rigidity. 5. High Cloud Cover in anti-phase with CR. 6. HCC vs time (last 50 years) anti-correlated with CR. Causal correlation of LCC and CR highly unlikely, because

LCC and SI probably related because 1. Power spectra match better than for LCC & CR. 2. Energetics much more reasonable (10 8 x). 3. Geographical distribution of stronger correlations, fits LCC vs SI. 4. From 1960 to present : Temperature profile fits SSN better than CR.