N2O-Climate feedback P.Friedlingstein, L. Bopp, S. Zaehle, P. Cadule and A. Friend IPSL/LSCE.

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Presentation transcript:

N2O-Climate feedback P.Friedlingstein, L. Bopp, S. Zaehle, P. Cadule and A. Friend IPSL/LSCE

Climate carbon cycle feedback Positive feedback 11 coupled climate carbon cycle models, same forcing in emissions, two simulations. Larger climate change

Radiative forcing Climate - Biogeochemical cycle feedback ? : Anthropogenic but also Natural sources/sinks

Feedback estimate What are the feedbacks between climate and other major radiatively active BGCs Which ones have to be calculated online Climate-BGC gain

Atmospheric [N 2 O] * IPCC, TAR, 2001 (*) In the following, whenever I say CO 2, I mean N 2 O

N 2 O Emissions IPCC, TAR, 2001

N2ON2O What are the potential changes in natural N 2 O emissions due to climate change

Methodology Estimate land and ocean N 2 O emissions –Historical and Future evolution (SRES-A2) –Use of IPSL AOGCM climate fields to drive ORCHIDEE land BGC model PISCES ocean BGC model Estimate atmospheric change due to climate-N 2 O emission feedback

Experimental design Land a)CO 2 forcing only b)CO 2 and climate change forcing No changes in land-use, fertilizer use, Nitrogen deposition,… Ocean CO 2 and climate change forcing

Climate forcing

ORCHIDEE Krinner et al., 2005 Zaehle et al., 2006

Some validation PS Sönke will buy more validation data at any price !

PISCES PO 4 3- Diatoms MicroZoo P.O.M. D.O.M Si Fe Nano-phyto Meso Zoo NO 3 - NH 4 + SmallLarge N 2 O Parametrization from Suntharalingham et al., 2002 J_N 2 O = f(O 2 consumption, O 2 concentration) Aumont et al., 2003

PISCES Model N 2 O Flux mgN/m2/yr Observations Nevison et al : Ocean validation

Atlantic East Pacific West Pacific Indian Ocean validation

Atmospheric pCO2 (ppm) Primary Productivity (GtC/yr) N 2 O Flux (TgN/yr) Ocean story

Change in O2 concentration (  mol/l) Change in N 2 O flux (mgN/m2/yr) Ocean story

Land story N 2 O Flux (TgN/yr)

Land story Change in N 2 O flux (gN/m2/yr) Grassland and cropland Forests Grassland and cropland Forests Most of the change occurs in temperate grasslands and croplands

Land story Relative change in N 2 O flux (%) Grassland and cropland Forests Worldwide increase

Atmospheric N 2 O Budget Whereis the change in atmosphericN 2 O concentration since PI. is the change in natural emissions since PI is the life-time of N 2 O in the atmosphere

ocean land sink source 10 ppb decrease W/m 2 Atmospheric N 2 O Budget Emissions Atm. Source/Sink Atm. Concentration TgN/yr ppb ppb

But… key role of N inputs

Conclusions Climate change alone may induces –decrease of oceanic emissions –increase of continental emissions Overall effect : negative feedback –Small (10 ppb decrease) relative to future anthropogenic scenarios (+ 200 ppb) Future continental emissions largely driven by N dep, Nfert. However …

N 2 O G-IG changes Positive feedback !!!

Last slide Did we just prove the ice core wrong ?

SRESA2 – IPSLCM2 - NPZDSRESA2 – IPSLCM4 -PISCES

Observations from Levitus (  mol/l) PISCES Model (  mol/l) 0 2 distribution

Climate forcing

Land story Change in N 2 O flux (gN/m2/yr) Most of the change occurs in temperate grasslands and croplands CO 2 alone Climate and CO 2 Climate effect