12/4/2015 INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS intelligence + information society M. Gams

Three worlds with different properties Intelligent systems - integration of the three Collapse of time, space.

Moore’s Law 1. Electronic world

Saturation – When?

Moravec 2.Computers vs beings

Human Brain Progress

Rast moči računalnikov / ljudi Moč procesiranja Čas Ljudje Računal- niki

Exponential vs. linear growth Memory

Turing test

Human-level intelligence Unknown barrier

3.Informacijska družba Moč procesiranja Čas Ljudje Računalniki Ljudje + Računalniki = Informacijska družba Rast človeških sposobnosti

Teorija singularnosti Moč procesiranja Čas Ljudje Računalnik i Ljudje + Računalniki = Informacijska družba

Generation no.Generation nameMain object I.AgrarianFood II.IndustrialProduction III.Post-industrialServices IV.Information s.Information Human Generations

Generation no.Generation nameStatus I.Machine-levelSlave II.ProgrammingSlave III.ToolsSlave IV. Information society Assistant / AGENTS Computer Generations

Generation name DurationComm. Speed Agrarian years3-5 km/h human Industrial horse, car Post-industrial airplane Information30? network IS Impact on Humans (Lewis)

Human Saturation Info clock >> biological clock  Terminal velocity  Conflict between biological and information clock  Humans can’t cope with information overflow  Solution: WE NEED INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS

Definition: information society More than 50% of GDP related to information/knowledge. More than 50% of employees active in the information economy (immaterial labour). Economy based on transition from material goods to information/knowledge (primary and secondary sector, e.g. OECD 1981, 1986). IS started ? Constantly growing! Slovenian growth

Possibilities s

BASIC I.S. LAWS m Moore’s law (exponential growth of chip capabilities) m Metcalf’s law: value(network) = square(no. of nodes) or n*logn (size of network is very important; internet) m Sidgemor’s law (exponential growth of net traffic, of transmission capabilities) m Andreesen Lewis Fleming... net capitalism = frictionless economy, information economy, Internet economy, new economy (global, liberal, without rectrictions, regulations)

Laws mMetcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes Moore's Law Metcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes – social networks - Internet Sidgemore's Law - traffic doubles every three months Andreesen's Law - cost of bandwidth is dropping Disk capacity (+electronic basic properties) also grows exponential Lewis/Flemig's Law - friction-free economy, booming, self-regulating (Greenspan) Gilder’s Law (The Law of Telecoms) - Total telecommunications system capacity (b/s) triples every three years Put on the Internet all your information and activities FB:mail The cyber-world doubles fortune (real or fictive?? – current crises) Side effect of information society is information overload Information society demands intensive information knowledge for successful leadership Information society belongs to all of us The Internet is the most democratic and free media in the world The Internet and information society are our hope for the future

INTERNET WIKIPEDIA ISKALNIKI / Wolfram Alpha Internet 1,2,3 Trendi danes: socialna omrežja, uporabniško generirana vsebina, visoka prepustnost omrežij, grafika, multimediji, virtualna ekonomija, Youtube, Facebook, Googlearth, 2nd life

Web 2.0" refers to a perceived second generation of web development and design, that facilitates communication, secure information sharing, interoperability, and collaboration on the World Wide Web. Web 2.0 concepts have led to the development and evolution of web-based communities, hosted services, and applications such as social- networking sites, video-sharing sites, wikis, blogs, and folksonomies. Wikipedia

Za Obamovo zmago odločilen internet; vir Finance David Plouffe, vodja digitalne kampanje Baracka Obame, Gradec, maj Nove tehnologije, zlasti internet, so eden glavnih razlogov, da je Obama postal 44. predsednik ZDA.Od začetka kampanje, ko je bila verjetnost za zmago skoraj enaka nič, so veliko tvegali; vedeli so, da nimajo drugega kot odličnega kandidata in jasno vizijo, ob tem pa pravilno ocenili, da je prav tehnologija pot za dosego ciljev. ***Internet kot glavni kanal kampanje so uporabili za zbiranje denarja (pol milijarde dolarjev), promoviranje (3 milijone prijateljev na Facebooku, na desetine profilov na omrežjih), organiziranje in predvsem samoorganiziranje ljudi na terenu ter nenehno pošiljanje sporočil neposredno do ljudi *** ter tako pometli z močnimi tekmeci, ki so kljub veliki prednosti na začetku kampanje igrali "po starih pravilih igre".

GOOGLE, APPLE, end of PC? YAHOO, ALTAVISTA … GOOGLE / MS? KOLIKO POVEZAV, DVA STUDENTA PORTAL, NE SAMO ISKALNIK - SEARCHABLE - SHORT-MESSAGING FOR MOBILE DEVICES - SEARCH ONLINE BOOKS - INDEX OF WEB IMAGES - SATELLITE IMAGES - CHAT GROUPS - CATALOG SERVICES - FROOGLE – BEST PRICE COMPARISONS

SKRITI INTERNET OBJAVE – CiteSeer; COBISS KNJIGE … - Amazon.com, DZS NAKUPOVANJE – E-bay, Bolha, Ceneje ZDRAVJE – nasveti, primeri, zdravila PREVAJANJE – med velikimi jeziki, slov. ENCIKLOPEDIJE – splosne, spec., WIKI INFORMACIJE – CNN, TV, filmi, posnetki, glasba, dnevniki (privatni), revije, blogi …

Discussion  Information society - technological, human, social  Intelligent systems - SW generation with some degree of intelligence  Intelligence (human, artificial, technical) is essential  True intelligent revolution decades away  Incredible possibilities ahead of us (first technical intelligent systems, later true AI) that may prevent saturation of human civilisation (overcrowded, shortage of oil and recources …) and jump ahead

THE FUTURE WILL BE INTELLIGENT