State of the Oceans 2006-2007 Albert Fischer OOPC-12 Paris, France, 2-5 May 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

State of the Oceans Albert Fischer OOPC-12 Paris, France, 2-5 May 2007

Ocean climate indices from data Observing system evaluation –In the long term: the development of ocean forecasting and ocean reanalyses, and observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) will provide specific feedback –Right now: estimating the uncertainty in the measure of climate indices quantities that act as indicators of climate variability towards a measure of our ability to observe Liaison/outreach –A way to communicate about the ocean observing system and the ocean’s role in climate and climate variability - what is the influence of the ocean on weather/climate and what is it doing right now

State of the ocean

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Seasonal precipitation anomaly JJA 2006 SON 2006 CAMS OPI raingauge+OLR (Xie & Arkin) Standardized Precipitation Index (stdevs from normal) plotted using IRI data library

Seasonal precipitation anomaly CAMS OPI raingauge+OLR (Xie & Arkin) Standardized Precipitation Index (stdevs from normal)

Sea surface height anomaly NRL ssha analysis via NOAA/AOML Sep 2006

Sea surface height anomaly NRL ssha analysis via NOAA/AOML Dec 2006

Sea surface height anomaly NRL ssha analysis via NOAA/AOML Apr 2007

Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTA

Pacific Warm Water Volume NOAA/PMEL

Willis, Lyman, Johnson, and Gilson, correction submitted April 2007 published Lyman et al (Sep 2006) same analysis without SOLO/FSI floats Ocean Heat Content Anomaly

Increasing visibility shown largely to a community ‘in the know’ (ocean observations community) Incoming traffic –exposure with links from IOC and GOOS, CLIVAR, and JAMSTEC web sites –30% from google (‘dipole mode’, ‘tropical atlantic’, ‘ocean climate/transport’, ‘essential climate variables’) –40% direct (bookmarked) now averaging 600 visits/month –from all continents except Antarctica In current form geared to ocean climate scientists

Where we know we want to improve Information about the impacts associated with the index - patterns of climate variability, links between indices, changes in rainfall, even historical examples; with references more subsurface indices: upper ocean heat content, mixed layer / thermocline depth, MOC, transports like ITF, mode waters, salinity changes, taking advantage of time series (mooring, repeat XBT) with improved uncertainty estimates sea level indices (including dynamic indices from altimetry) composite indices (ex: hurricane index - combination of ocean heat content and atmospheric conditions) sea ice polar oceans more information/better links about the observing networks contributing to the calculation of the index while retaining easy accessibility - a limit on the number of ‘top level’ indices - an ‘expert’ toggle?