The World Bank The World Bank Risk Architecture in a Basel-II World Presented to the World Bank Risk Management Seminar Washington, D.C. May 18, 2004 Presented by David M. Rowe, Ph.D. Executive Vice President for Risk Management SunGard Trading and Risk Systems

The World Bank Agenda 1. Introduction – A Brief History of the Basel Accord 2.Data Issues and Technology Challenges 3.Support for Broader Trends in Risk Management 4.Solution Components to Manage Credit Risk Under Basel II 5.The Buy vs. Build Decision 6. Importance of Communication

The World Bank Basel Capital Accord – Brief History U.S. Bank Capital Ratios – Depression thru WWII Post-War Recovery thru early 1960s Mid-60s thru Mid-70’s Mid-70s thru Late-80’s

The World Bank Basel Capital Accord – Brief History Basel 1 Proposed: 1986 Effective: 1988 Credit Risk

The World Bank Basel Capital Accord – Brief History Basel I 1986 – Proposed minimum regulatory capital requirements for banks – Capital requirements came into effect with minimum capital rising to 8% of risk adjusted assets by the end of The capital calculation was intended to distinguish among assets by risk class, but did so in only the crudest fashion.

The World Bank Overview of risk weights The Basel I Approach Claim Sovereigns Assessment Corporates Comm. Banks OECDNon-OECD 0%100% 20% 100% OECDNon-OECDAll 50% Multi-National Development Banks All Secured Residential Mortgages Required data could largely be derived from financial reporting systems.

The World Bank Basel Capital Accord – Brief History Bank Capital Ratios – Depression thru WWII Post-War Recovery thru early 1960s Mid-60s thru Mid-70’s Mid-70s thru Late-80’s

The World Bank Basel Capital Accord – Brief History Bank Capital Ratios – Depression thru WWII Post-War Recovery thru early 1960s Mid-60s thru Mid-70’s Mid-70s thru Late-80’s Late-80s forward

The World Bank Basel Capital Accord – Brief History Basel 1.5 Proposed: 1993 Effective: 1998 Credit Risk + Market Risk Basel 1 Proposed: 1986 Effective: 1988 Credit Risk

The World Bank Basel Capital Accord – Brief History April, 1993 –Initial “prescriptive” proposal. April, 1995 –Proposed allowing use of internal market risk models for calculation of regulatory capital (subject to supervisory review and approval.) Jan 1, Market risk amendment took effect with internal VaR models as a major source of risk estimates. Basel I Market Risk Amendment

The World Bank Basel Capital Accord – Brief History Basel 1.5 Proposed: 1993 Effective: 1998 Credit Risk + Market Risk Basel 1 Proposed: 1986 Effective: 1988 Credit Risk Basel 2 Proposed: 1999 Effective: 2007 Credit Risk (Enhanced) + Market Risk (No change) + Op Risk (New) Key sources of required work for affected banks.

The World Bank Agenda 1. Introduction – A Brief History of the Basel Accord 2.Data Issues and Technology Challenges 3.Support for Broader Trends in Risk Management 4.Solution Components to Manage Credit Risk Under Basel II 5.The Buy vs. Build Decision 6. Importance of Communication

The World Bank Data Fragmentation System Integration tends to be along internal regions and products.

The World Bank Data Fragmentation Credit Risk data requirements cut directly across existing system fragmentation.

The World Bank Data Fragmentation Credit Risk data requirements cut directly across existing system fragmentation.

The World Bank Data Fragmentation Credit Risk data requirements cut directly across existing system fragmentation.

The World Bank Data Fragmentation Credit Risk data requirements cut directly across existing system fragmentation.

The World Bank Overview of risk weights Credit Risk - Standardised Approach Claim Sovereigns Assessment Option 1 Option 2 Corporates Banks AAA to AA- A+ to A- BBB+ to BBB- BB+ to B-Below B-Unrated 0%20%50%100%150%100% 20% 50% 100% 50% 100% 150% 100% 50% AAA to AA- A+ to A- BBB+ to BB- Below BB-Unrated Required data must come from risk systems.

The World Bank Credit Risk - IRB Approach Regulatory capital = EAD x risk weight (f [PD, LGD, M]) x 8% This implies an even greater need for data from risk systems rather than just financial systems. Regulatory capital = EAD x risk weight (f [PD, LGD, M]) x 8% Estimation of Probability of Default (PD) Foundation IRB Estimation of Exposure at Default (EAD) Estimation of Loss given Default (LGD) Advanced IRB Regulatory capital = EAD x risk weight (f [PD, LGD, M]) x 8%

The World Bank The First Challenge: Data Integration Consolidating exposure across products, regions and systems (by obligor or by risk characteristics.) Maintaining clean and consistent legal entity and facilities definition data. Integrating collateral, guarantees and other credit enhancement data with items 1 and 2. Collection and maintenance of external historic data (market data, industry defaults, etc.) Providing audit trails and reconciliation to source systems. Archive facilities to refine analysis and validate results. Proper data security to limit unauthorized access.

The World Bank The Second Challenge: Analytics Implementation of multiple sophisticated credit ratings models. –Scoring or Merton-style models for PD. –Behavioral models for EAD. –Structural and external conditions models for LGD. Advanced economic capital allocation framework (Pillar II.)

The World Bank Credit Exposure Map Retail Commercial Pre-Settlement Settl. Term Revol. Unsecured Illiquid Coll. Liquid Coll.

The World Bank Additional Information and Analytics Mkt Data Vols & Correl Default Analytics Exposure Analytics LGD Analytics Static Data Legal & Netting Guarantees And Collateral Terms Credit Ratings

The World Bank Credit Exposure and Supporting Data Retail Commercial Pre-Settlement Settl. Term Revol.

The World Bank Typical Existing Data Links Line Unit 1 Line Unit 5 Line Unit 6 Line Unit 7 Line Unit 8 Line Unit 2 Line Unit 3 Line Unit 4 Control Unit 4 Control Unit 3 Control Unit 2 Control Unit 1 Control Unit 5

The World Bank Ideal Data Linkage Configuration Line Unit 1 Line Unit 5 Line Unit 6 Line Unit 7 Line Unit 8 Line Unit 2 Line Unit 3 Line Unit 4 Control Unit 4 Control Unit 3 Control Unit 2 Control Unit 1 Control Unit 5 Content translation XML Protocols FpML, NTM... Middleware MQSeries, MINT... Bridging operating systems & network protocols Delivery and routing Semantic Adapters  Central repository for portfolio data and analytics

The World Bank Practical Data Linkage Configuration Line Unit 1 Line Unit 5 Line Unit 6 Line Unit 7 Line Unit 8 Line Unit 2 Line Unit 3 Line Unit 4 Control Unit 4 Control Unit 3 Control Unit 2 Control Unit 1 Control Unit 5 Content translation Central repository for portfolio data and analytics Bridging operating systems & network protocols Delivery and routing Middleware Data Mapping & Consolidation Software

The World Bank Agenda 1. Introduction – A Brief History of the Basel Accord 2.Data Issues and Technology Challenges 3.Support for Broader Trends in Risk Management 4.Solution Components to Manage Credit Risk Under Basel II 5.The Buy vs. Build Decision 6. Importance of Communication

The World Bank Evolution of Credit Risk Management Credit Underwriting 1985 Portfolio Management Credit Underwriting Today Credit risk management was dominated by careful underwriting. The watchword tended to be “We only make good loans.” A portfolio management overlay. Underwriting data feed portfolio management. Few data flow the other way. Portfolio management is mainly strategic.

The World Bank Evolution of Credit Risk Management Portfolio Management Credit Underwriting Today A portfolio management overlay. Underwriting data feed portfolio management. Little data flows the other way. Portfolio management is mainly strategic. In 5 to 15 Years Portfolio Management Credit Underwriting Data flow both ways. The frequency and speed of data exchange accelerates dramatically. Portfolio analysis becomes a tactical decision support tool.

The World Bank Data Map – Wholesale Finance Retail Commercial Pre-Settlement Settl. Term Revol.

The World Bank Support for Tactical Decisions Proposed Credit Facility RAROC Implications (Including Portfolio Effects) - Current RAROC - Credit Enhancement Options - RAROC Sensitivity - Minimum Terms

The World Bank Data Map - Trading Credit Retail Commercial Pre-Settlement Settl. Term Revol.

The World Bank Simulation-Based Trading Credit Exp. Limit Query Trading Systems Trade Entry Portfolio Trade Data Fast Analytic Exposure Calculator Before & After Exposure Profiles and Limits Marginal Credit Loss and Credit Capital Charges Real-Time Process Credit Risk Server Summary Trade Data Middleware & XML Messages

The World Bank Agenda 1. Introduction – A Brief History of the Basel Accord 2.Data Issues and Technology Challenges 3.Support for Broader Trends in Risk Management 4.Solution Components to Manage Credit Risk Under Basel II 5.The Buy vs. Build Decision 6. Importance of Communication

The World Bank Needed Components for a Basel II Credit Solution Data Consolidation and Quality Control Credit Rating Models (PD, EAD, LGD) Credit rating workflow static customer data financial statements credit ratings Operational credit systems environment Loans, limits, exposure analytics, etc. IRB regulatory and economic capital calculations & validation framework Internal and external reporting

The World Bank Basel II Credit Risk Architecture Overview Exposures Collateral Exposures Trading/Banking Book (Corp./Banks/Sov.) Banking book: SME / Retail Book Credit system Collateral B2 Capital Calculator Internal Credit Rating Systems PD, EAD, LGD Ratings and Loss Data Regulatory Capital Calculations Regulatory Reporting Regulatory Capital Validation Framework Regulatory Validation Reports Historical Data Analysis Internal Reporting Economic Capital Calculations Economic Capital Allocation Tactical Decision Support B2 Data Consolidator

The World Bank Agenda 1.Introduction – A Brief History of the Basel Accord 2.Data Issues and Technology Challenges 3.Support for Broader Trends in Risk Management 4.Solution Components to Manage Credit Risk Under Basel II 5.The Buy vs. Build Decision 6. Importance of Communication

The World Bank Buy vs. Build & the Software Life Cycle Software has a life cycle like all other products CommoditizedProprietary Breadth of Usage All Few Cost High Low maturity Dangerous Position YouCompetitors

The World Bank Agenda 1.Introduction – A Brief History of the Basel Accord 2.Data Issues and Technology Challenges 3.Support for Broader Trends in Risk Management 4.Solution Components to Manage Credit Risk Under Basel II 5.The Buy vs. Build Decision 6. Importance of Communication

The World Bank The Third Challenge: Communication Keeping the credit underwriters on board. Providing information support for informed credit judgments. Make validation constructive not threatening. The motto should be: Technology in Support of Sound Judgment