Dr. Richard Palmer Professor and Head Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Massachusetts Amherst

We anticipate a good deal of exchange There will be numerous presentations The presentations should stimulate questions We want to hear from you today Let us know if you feel like this!

Create a basin-wide hydrologic model decision support tool that will allow water managers and other key stakeholders to evaluate environmental and economic outcomes based on various management scenarios.

Where it is possible, restore the timing and magnitude of high flow events to increase floodplain inundation and restore channel processes Reduce within day flow variability to improve the quality and quantity of aquatic habitat In rivers with human induced chronic low flows, seeks ways to ameliorate the effects of large water withdrawals and maintain healthy ecosystems Seek operating policies that improve traditional (flood control, water supply, hydropower, etc.) and river ecological functions

Identify and evaluate operational policies for the Connecticut River using a decision support system that will enhance environmental benefits while maintaining or increasing existing benefits such as hydropower production, water supply, recreation, and irrigation. When Viewed as an optimization problem

This goal will be achieved with: careful evaluation of current operations, interactions with stakeholders, and the generation of new operational alternatives that improve overall system performance.

Simulation Models Optimization Models Decision Support Systems ? ? ?

Simulation Models Answers “what-if” questions about a system Follows logic reasoning to determine releases and storages from a reservoir based on target storages, min/max releases, etc. Easily adjusted to examine and compare different scenarios Optimization Models Maximizes/minimizes a given objective: deviations from targets, hydropower, etc. Operating rules are either targets or constraints. Can prioritize objectives through weighting Demonstrates how an objective can be reached through changing operations Trade off curves: what must be sacrificed to make gains in objective

Water Resources DDS Components Meteorological Inputs Hydrologic Inputs Physical Features Operational Considerations Environmental Targets Decision Support System Decision support systems are typically computer-based information systems that support decision-making activities. DSSs are often composed of both data and linked "models." DSSs support decision, they do not make decisions.

SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION HEC-RAS ECO-FLOW PRESCIPTIONS STAKEHOLDER NEEDS CLIMATE IMPACTED STREAMFLOW FORECASTED STREAMFLOW HISTORIC STREAMFLOW (SYE) Alternative System Operations INPUTMODELS HYDROLOGY SYSTEM CONSTRAINTS AND TARGETS

SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION HEC-RAS ECO-FLOW PRESCIPTIONS STAKEHOLDER NEEDS CLIMATE IMPACTED STREAMFLOW FORECASTED STREAMFLOW HISTORIC STREAMFLOW (SYE) Alternative System Operations INPUTMODELS HYDROLOGY SYSTEM CONSTRAINTS AND TARGETS DSS

The Connecticut River Basin Home to 2.3 million people Largest River in New England Spans 4 States: VT, NH, MA, CT The Project How can we optimize dam operations for various objectives? 44 sub basins Over 60 major dams Over 100 ecological nodes Basin Wide Optimization Problem

Simulation Tool of the Basin Optimization model With Current Operations as Targets Introduce New Targets/Objectives in Optimization Model and Create Trade-Off Curves Understanding of Current System Calibrated to historical release/storage data Current operating rules as targets (some as constraints) Since there are no new objectives, it should yield similar results as simulation model New targets and objectives introduced Determine benefits gained from altering operations Trade offs between competing objectives

 Examine current operations to see where improvements can be made  Short term forecasts can predict stream flow for reservoir operation planning  Climate impacted stream flow can be used as input to determine reservoir operations in the future

1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 SYE RES-SIM SIM-OPTI Climate Flows EcoFlow HEC -RAS

Historic Streamflows (SYE) Climate Impacted Streamflows HEC -RAS Hydrologic Inputs go into operations models Outputs from operations models are compared Hydraulic Model informs EcoFlow Prescription EcoFlows are tested in operations models DSS identifies Alternative Systems Operations EcoFlow Prescription Simulation Optimization S TELLA Simulation Alternative System Operations