Report of the Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel to the 20 th Session of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel October 18-22, 2004 Chennai, India Nuku Hiva, Marquesas Islands

Present Tropical Moored Arrays Primary Measurements: Wind, AirT, RH, SST, 10 Water Temperatures 20 m to 500 m Enhanced Measurements: Rain, SWR, LWR, BP, Salinity, Currents

Current Conditions SST is warmer than normal in western and central Pacific Trade Winds are weaker than normal in western Pacific

Current Conditions  Thermocline slopes down to west because of trade wind forcing.  East-west slope is weaker in the western and central Pacific because trades are weaker.  Warm subsurface temperature anomalies across much of the basin (elevated heat content--a predictor of El Niño).

TWO-YEAR EVOLUTION

Evolution: April-Present QuickTime

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP October 7, 2004 Synopsis: Warm-episode conditions are expected to continue into early Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies greater than +0.5°C persisted in the central and western equatorial Pacific, and expanded eastward into the eastern equatorial Pacific during September 2004 …periods of weaker-than-average easterlies that initiated eastward- propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which contributed to a deeper-than- average oceanic thermocline and an increase in surface and subsurface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific The NOAA operational definition for El Niño [a three-month running mean of the Niño 3.4 index, greater than or equal to +0.5°C] was satisfied for the period June-August 2004, with a value of +0.7°C.

Niño3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Index Average=0.7°C

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP ENSO DISCUSSION (Continued) Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region will remain positive, at or above +0.5°C, through early Expected global impacts include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia (through early 2005), northern and northeastern Australia (November 2004-February 2005), and southeastern Africa (November 2004-March 2005). Niño3.4 Region El Niño Advisory

TAO/TRITON STATUS

PIRATA STATUS

2005 TAO PLANS Measure surface salinity from all ATLAS moorings Upgrade 5 moorings for full flux measurements NDBC officially takes management responsibility for TAO Transition through focus on data delivery PMEL staff provides operational support during transition

2005 PIRATA PLANS Upgrade 3 moorings for full flux measurements No dedicated French cruise for 2005! PIRATA-10 meeting, December 2004 Assess impact on understanding and prediction of climate variability Propose expansions Identify resources

Indian Ocean Plans There is an increasingly organized international effort to develop an Indian Ocean component to the Global Ocean Observing system to support climate studies:  Compelling unanswered scientific questions;  Potential societal benefits (improved prediction of the monsoon rainfalls and teleconnections);  One of the most poorly sampled regions of the world ocean in terms of in situ observations;  Growing investments from India (2 new ships & major buoy program initiative planned) and Japan (new Asian Monsoon Observing $300M over 10 yrs);  Summit on Earth Observations (July 2003).

Draft Strategy for Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Array First Session of CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel February 2004 Pune, India

RV Sagar Kanya Cruise October-November 2004  3 ATLAS & 1 ADCP Mooring  1.5°S, 0°, 1.5°N along 80.5°E  ATLAS enhanced with current meters, salinity, rainfall, SW; in addtion, LW & atmospheric pressure on central mooring  Expect to continue and expand with Indian (NIO, NIOT, DOD/NCAOR, etc) and other institutions.

RV Sagar Kanya Cruise October-November Day Cruise 5 days for ATLAS In collaboration with NIO (Dr. V.S.N. Murty) and NCAOR (Dr. M. Sudhakar)