THE FUTURE IN CUBA

NEW POLICY DIRECTION IN CUBA By Peter DeSazo

NEW POLICY DIRECTION ON CUBA 1. With the regime change, reform of the state should follow 2. The United States of America will change their policy toward Cuba

NEW POLICY DIRECTION ON CUBA Raul Castro will need to seek legitimacy of his rule in the people... The younger generations wishes a market economy HOWEVER: The older generations still support the Castro regime

NEW POLICY DIRECTION ON CUBA The US embargo has proven to be completely inefficient Cuba has not been a real threat to the US security in a long time Cuba is a good economic opportunity for the United States HOWEVER: The Bush administration promises things to stay the same

After Fidel, the Deluge? By: Col. Alex Crowther

After Fidel, the Deluge? “No deluge, just a drizzle.” 5 post-Fidel scenarios: 1. Stable succession 2. Stable transition 3. Unstable succession 4. Unstable transition 5. Chaos

After Fidel, the Deluge? Stable succession Fidel, Raul and advisors were well prepared Raul has been a leader since 2006 Current leaders are comfortable with their level of control

After Fidel, the Deluge? Cuban state apparatus was ready to prevent instability and chaos Raul..... Minimum of meddling USA.... Must be able to influence Cuban government and the people

Castro quits one role, but may not be done yet By Antony DePalma (from The New York Times, 20th February 2008)

About Fidel and his resignation letter published on the website of the Cuban Communist Party's newspaper Granma. Not in 2006 because he had had a duty to the Cuban people to prepare them for his absence. The National Assembly is schedule to select 31-member council of state. Different opinions. Castro quits one role, but may not be done yet

Raul Castro has worked to ensure a smooth political transition, keeping the army loyal to the regime and strengthening the Communist Party's hold by introducing reforms and weeding out corrupt officials. Washington has called for Cuba to hold free elections. Embargo probably stays. President George W. Bush; US was ready to help the "people of Cuba realise the blessings of liberty". Castro quits one role, but may not be done yet

He leaves his country with universal free healthcare and a much-admired education system, which has produced doctors for the developing world, but also a failing economy. Fidel's painfully long political finale has damaged economic institutions, exacerbated ethnic tensions between "white" Cubans and Afro-Cubans (black and overwhelmingly poor), and created a generation of alienated, disenfranchised youth. Castro quits one role, but may not be done yet