Andy Wood, Alan Hamlet, Seethu Babu, Marketa McGuire and Dennis P. Lettenmaier A West-wide Seasonal to Interannual Hydrologic Forecast System OVERVIEW  We have implemented the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model over the western U.S. at 1/8 degree spatial resolution for experimental ensemble hydrologic prediction at lead times of six months to 1 year.  Forecasts are made once monthly, using simulated initial conditions based on real-time observations of temperature and precipitation.  Benchmark climate forecasts are constructed via the well-known Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method of the U.S. National Weather Service. The ESP forecasts are further composited to provide ENSO and PDO-conditioned ensembles, which past work has shown can considerably reduce seasonal forecast error.  Experimental hydrologic forecasts are also made, using climate forecast ensembles taken from the NCEP Global Spectral Model (GSM) and the NASA NSIPP-1 model. These will also eventually include the NCEP official seasonal outlooks. Major Improvements for Current Forecasting System (starting Sept. ‘03) References / Acknowledgements Wood, A.W., E.P. Maurer, A. Kumar and D.P. Lettenmaier, Long Range Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting for the Eastern U.S., J. Geophys. Res., 107(D20). Liang, X., D. P. Lettenmaier, E. F. Wood and S. J. Burges, A Simple hydrologically Based Model of Land Surface Water and Energy Fluxes for GSMs, J. Geophys. Res., 99(D7). The authors acknowledge the support of NOAA/OGP, the IRI/ARCS Regional Applications Project, and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). Hydrologic Model (Liang et al., 1994) Hydrologic Forecasting Simulations Forecast Products streamflow soil moisture runoff snowpack derived products model spin-up forecast ensemble(s) climate forecast information climatology ensemble 1-2 years back start of month 0end of mon 6-12 NCDC met. station obs. up to 2-4 months from current LDAS/other real-time met. forcings for remaining spin-up data sources snow state information Statistical Approach Bias-correction of climate model ensembles of monthly PCP, TEMP, at climate model scale Spatial disaggregation to 1/8 degree hydrologic model scale Temporal disaggregation from monthly to daily time step detailed in Wood et al. (2002) Our initial forecast domain was the Pacific Northwest. Real-time bi-monthly updates began at the end of December, 2002, and ran through April NCEP GSM forecasts T62 (~1.9 degree) resolution 6 month forecast duration 20-member ensembles, monthly P, T NSIPP-1 Tier 1 forecasts 2 x 2.5 degree (lat x lon) resolution 7 month forecast duration 9-member forecast ensembles, monthly P, T Review of Pilot Implementation: Columbia River Basin in Winter 2003 Dam Power Plant River/Canal Transfer Eastman, Hensley, & Millerton New Don Pedro & McClure Delta New Hogan Pardee & Camanche Stanislaus River Tuolumne & Merced Rivers Delta Outflow Mokelumne River Calaveras River San Joaquin River New Melones San Luis Trinit y Whiskeytow n Shasta Oroville (SWP) Folsom Clear Creek American River Feather River Trinity River Sacramento River Dam Power Plant River Transfer Delta Colorado River San Joaquin River Columbia RiverSacramento River computer failure halted UW forecasts Jan 15, 2003 Dec 28, 2002 Feb 1, 2003 Apr 1, 2003 Snow Water Equivalent Simulated System Storage (acre-ft) 1) NRCS SNOTEL / EC ASP observed SWE anomalies are interpolated in distance and elevation to hydrologic grid cell elevation bands, and linearly combined with simulated anomalies, to adjust the hydrologic model state at the start of the forecast. 2) spin-up met. data improvements method not illustrated Streamflow hydrograph forecasts (example from February 1) Initial hydrologic condition estimates Reservoir system forecast experiments  improving late spin-up forcing procedure through addition of more index stations (currently ~100, with change to 350 in next month)  re-evaluating the NASA/NOAA NLDAS 1/8 degree forcing product as a potential real-time forcing in Western U.S.  automating nowcast / initial condition simulation to occur on weekly basis  expanding forecast products to include spatial fields (snow water equivalent, soil moisture, runoff)  adopting selected experimental reservoir system forecasts as routine products  developing a downscaling approach for official forecasts from NCEP and other centers  pursuing linkages to NRCS and NWS streamflow forecasting operations groups  comparing nowcasts with retrospective simulations now in progress extending back to Other Changes / Ongoing Work Univ. of Washington Climate Forecasts ESP forecasts VIC model resolution (1/8 degree) historical 12 month daily sequences from NCEP Official Outlooks (pending) Downscaling of Climate Model Forecasts 1 23 Components of Overall Real-time Forecasting Approach Simulated System Storage (acre-ft) min max fcst. ens. mean historical mean Selected Results Primary Upgrades to the forecasting system included: 1) the development of a simple method for assimilating snow water equivalent observations at the start of the forecast, 2) a modification of the surface forcing estimation immediately prior to the forecast start using a set of real-time index stations in lieu of the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) real-time forcings. We began adapting a set of reservoir system models for the western U.S to produce ensemble forecasts of reservoir system storages, operations and releases. example obs SWE anomalies corresponding SWE adjustment 6-Month Ensemble Forecasts of System Storage for the Columbia River Basin Using VIC Streamflow Forecasts and the ColSim Reservoir Model Initialized by Observed Reservoir Elevations (~ Feb 1, 2001) 54 SYNOPSIS: early winter snowpack deficits recovered somewhat, but ultimately led to moderate streamflow deficits in spring and summer. New Web Page Expanded hydrologic nowcasting / forecasting domain (ultimately to include US west of Mississippi R., and update weekly, rather than monthly; all at 1/8 degree lat/lon) Increasing streamflow forecast locations Upper Rio Grande R. Basin Snake R. BasinCaliforniaColorado R. Basin adding Dec 03 adding Jan 04implemented Streamflow volume forecast comparison with NWS / NRCS official forecasts Feb 1 observed