1 Microscale Air Dispersion Modeling Community Health Neighborhood Assessment Program Working Draft Do Not Cite or Quote Tony Servin, P.E. October 10,

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Presentation transcript:

1 Microscale Air Dispersion Modeling Community Health Neighborhood Assessment Program Working Draft Do Not Cite or Quote Tony Servin, P.E. October 10, 2001 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency

2 Overview Local Emissions Only –Cars & Trucks CALINE –Facilities ISCST3, AERMOD, CALPUFF Primary Emissions –no chemical reaction –no deposition Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

3 Overview (cont.) Today’s results are predicted with –ISCST3 –CALINE Inhalation Risk is based on predicted concentrations from local emissions Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

4 General Location Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Lindbergh Field North Island Shipping Lane Logan Memorial

5 Closer Look Barrio Logan / Logan Heights Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Rail Line Shipping Lane Shipping Docks –B Street –10th Street Logan Memorial

6 Aerial View of Barrio Logan Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Local Sources Facilities Point and Volume Sources Rail Line Volume Sources Shipping Lane Volume Sources Logan Memorial

7 Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Lindbergh Field –Approach –Climb Out North Island –Approach –Climb Out Shipping Lane Logan Memorial Total 660 Point and Volume Sources Satellite View of San Diego

8 Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Logan Memorial Wind Rose Nov 1, 1999 to Oct 31, 2000 Sea Breeze (predominately daytime) Land Breeze (predominately nighttime)

9 Results - Concentration Examples of Concentration Plots –Perchloroethylene –Manganese ISCST3 results underpredict observed annual average concentration at Logan Memorial Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

10 Perc local emissions Ann. Avg. Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

11 Mn local emissions Ann. Avg. Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

12 Motor Vehicle Links Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Input to CALINE 991 Links from DTIM

13 Risk Form local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

14 Risk Benz local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

15 Risk Cr(VI) local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

16 Comparisons to Facility HRA Two facilities evaluated without diesel PM –Southwest Marine –NASSCO Predictions similar, not identical Differences likely due to: –Met. Data (Lindbergh/Logan Memorial) –Inventory (variations) –Model options (rural/urban, initial conditions) Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

17 Risk Southwest Marine (w/o DPM) Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

18 Risk NASSCO (w/o DPM) Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

19 Risk - Facilities (w/o DPM) local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

20 Risk DPM local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

21 Risk Summary local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

22 Risk at Logan Memorial Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

23 Further Analysis Simulations with –AERMOD –CALPUFF Evaluation of the tracer studies and model performance Working Draft - Do Not Cite - Do Not Quote

24 Conclusions Diesel PM is the major contributor to inhalation Risk Facility risk similar to HRA risk ISC/CALINE generally underpredicts observations at Logan Memorial Need to supplement microscale evaluation with regional background evaluation Working Draft - Do Not Cite - Do Not Quote