1 Mission Goal 3: Weather and Water Research Plan FY 06 – FY 10 Louis W. Uccellini February 24, 2004 Overview

2 Key Factors Research is Mission Driven: Goals Provided by “Service” Components Consistent with FY06 Weather and Water Program Plan/Baseline Assessments Linked Explicitly with NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) Emphasize the Need to Leverage Other Agencies

3 National Needs National Needs Have Been Prioritized Extreme Weather Drought and Fresh Water Availability Air Quality Coastal Zones

4 Where Are We Headed: Long Term Service Delivery Goals 2000Future Tornadoes (Lead Time)12 Minutes1 Hour Severe Thunderstorms (Lead Time)18 Minutes2 Hours Flash Floods (Lead Time)43 Minutes1 Hour Water Resources InformationLimitedOn Demand Hurricanes (Lead Time)24 Hours3 Days Winter Storm Warnings (Lead Time)9 HoursSeveral Days Air Quality (Lead Time)N/ASeveral Days Space Weather (Lead Time)HoursGeomagnetic Storm – 5 Days Solar Radiation Storm – 2 Days Coastal Winds and Waves (Lead Time) MinutesConvective Storms – 5 Hours Gales & Storms – 3 Days

5 Research Plan Strategy Focus on Four Key Improvement Thrusts Improve Weather Forecasts, Warnings, Information, and Services (Including Severe Wx, Hurricanes, Winter Storms, Quantitative Precipitation, Floods, Fire Wx, Space Wx, etc.) Integrate NOAA Assets to Deliver Water Resource Predictions Establish National Air Quality Capability in Partnership with EPA Integrate and Improve NOAA’s Environmental Information Products and Services for Nation’s Coastal Zones Advance Two Enabling Capabilities Integrated Observations Environmental Modeling

6 Enabling Capabilities Improvements Must Occur Here Monitor & Observe: Surface, ocean, and atmosphere observations –Needed for forecasts and warnings, models, verification, and validation –Includes NEXRAD, ASOS, radiosondes, buoys, and other networks Assess & Predict: Models, IT, infrastructure, and forecasters/hydrologists –Needed to produce warnings, forecasts, and information. –Includes Labor (WFOs, RFCs, National Centers, Regional and National Headquarters), AWIPS, telecommunications Engage, Advise & Inform: Product dissemination and customer outreach –Needed to deliver critical warnings, forecasts, and information and to train and educate customers –Includes NOAA Weather Radio, Family of Services, Storm Ready Understand & Describe: Research and Development –Needed for product, information, and service improvement –Includes Laboratories (labor, infrastructure, joint institutes), grant programs

7 Observational Issues “Observations Are NOAA’s Legacy” (Kelly Redmond) Bringing New Technological Advances to Radar (NEXRAD Dual Polarization, Phased Array) and Satellites (Research Satellites, NPOESS Preparatory Mission, GOES-R) How to Combine with Insitu Measurements How to Extract Information; Maximize Diagnostic and Predictive Capabilities (e.g., ASOS) Observations and Modeling Issues are Linked

8 5-Order Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over 10 Years Year Count (Millions) Daily Upper Air Observation Count Year Satellite Instruments by Platform Count NPOESS METEOP NOAA Windsat GOES DMSP ch Year

Providing Global Measurements Aqua Terra TRMM SORCE SeaWiFS Aura Meteor/ SAGE GRACE ICESat Cloudsat Jason CALIPSO GIFTS TOPEX Landsat NOAA/ POES

10 Modeling Issues Data Assimilation Linked to Observing Program; Determine the “Optimal Mix” of Insitu and Remotely Sensed Observations (Especially Radar and Satellite) Ensemble Approach –Number of Members? (Will Likely Rely on International Partners to Increase “Final” Set of Model Runs) –Model Diversity? –Initial State Perturbation? Interdisciplinary Approach Model Flexibility (Especially Climate/Wx) Research to Operations – Can Each Community Use the Same Modeling System?

11 Fundamental Strategy Unified Earth System Modeling System –Links Climate, Weather, Ocean, Land, Space Wx –Applied to Multidisciplinary Problem (e.g. Hydrometeorological, Air Quality, Coastal Zone) –Spans the Scales from Climate to Short-Term Mesoscale Prediction Based on a Community Model Approach –Interoperable (Within NOAA; Among Other Agencies) –Extensible –Applied to Research to Operations Transition

12 The Challenges of Operational “Goals” Driving Research “Needs” Scheduling Research Advances Protecting the Serendipity of the Research Process Ensuring Research Results Can Accelerate Service Advancements Taking Advantage of Test Beds (Bridge that Links Research Needs to Operational Service Goals) –JHT, JCSDA, HWTB, DTC, Proposed Hydromet and Climate Test Beds Major Premise for Advancement: Research Community Can do “Research” with Operational Observations and Modeling Systems

13 Supporting Programs The Need to Leverage! Ongoing Programs that Require NOAA Support for Mission Goal 3 Advancements: –USWRP –THORPex –Hydrology: Rivers, Lakes and Floods Program –Coasts, Estuaries and Oceans Program –Science and Technology Infusion Program (STIP) Linkage to Other Goal Programs

14 Summary Service Goals Are in Place Priorities Have Been Established Research to Operational Transition (The Bridge) Remains the Challenge for Successful NOAA Must be Accomplished with Recognition for Importance of Both the Science “Needs” and the Service “Goals” that Support “Transition from Research to Operations” Must Work in Partnership with Programs that Include Other Agencies

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16 National Needs Severe Weather (Atmosphere & Space) Continues to Have Major Impacts on the Nation –Cause $11B in damage/year – 523 Casualties Drought and Fresh Water Availability are Growing National Concerns –$6B-$8B in losses/year Poor Air Quality has Significant Effect on the Nation’s Health and Economy –Pollution causes up to 40,000 deaths and $150B in costs/year Rising Costs of Weather and Water Damage Along Nation’s Coasts –Damages from coastal storms can reach $50B/year

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