Attachai Jintrawet Multiple Cropping Center, Chiang Mai Univ., Chiang Mai. & Kim C. Nguyen, Atmospheric Res. Center, Sasin Graduate School of.

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Presentation transcript:

Attachai Jintrawet Multiple Cropping Center, Chiang Mai Univ., Chiang Mai. & Kim C. Nguyen, Atmospheric Res. Center, Sasin Graduate School of Management, Chulalongkorn University, Sasapatasala Building, room 521. Simulating impacts of future climate on rice and human in CNX, KKC Thailand

Rice production systems and climate changes Study methods Results Summary Issues

Global carbon cycle and stocks Thailand carries 1 million ha of riceland

Rice yield (kg ha -1 ) and population 0 2,500 5,000 Thailand: 65 Millions KK = 1.8 Millions CNX = 1.6 Millions OAE,

Historical weather data KK, CM Study tools KK using Roi Et soil CM using San Sai soil NSPT glutinous rice RD23 non-glutinous rice Predicted Regional GCM scenario weather data KK, CM VS + CERES-Rice GFDL-MK3 climate model

Scenario 1: Irrigation Irrigated RD23 NSPT MK3 WTH Rainfed RD23 NSPT MK3 WTH Rice variety Weather data Scenario 1 = 1xCO2 b/w Using WTH & MK3 WTH Scenario 2 = 2xCO2 b/w Using MK Urea Green manure WTH

Scenario 2: Irrigation Irrigated RD23 NSPT MK3 Rainfed RD23 NSPT MK3 Rice variety Weather data Scenario 2 = 2xCO2 b/w using MK Urea 0, 37.5, 75 kg ha , 2, 4 Mg ha -1 Total of 12 management rice production strategies

Scenario 1 between ProvincesWaterRice variety WTH MK3OAE KKC RD NSPT CNX NSPT NSPT Rainfed Irrigated RD 23 NSPT Rice yield (Mg ha -1 ) RMSE RMSE

Rainfall between ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 ๒๕๒๓ 1980 ๒๕๓๓ 1990 ๒๕๔๓ 2000 ๒๕๕๓ 2010 ๒๕๖๓ 2020 ๒๕๗๓ 2030 CNX KKC

Scenario 2 b/w Rainfed Irrigated NSPT Rice yield at KKC (Mg ha -1 ) Rice varGM (kg ha -1 ) RD Urea (kg ha -1 )

Scenario 2 b/w Rainfed Irrigated NSPT Rice yield at CNX (Mg ha -1 ) Rice varGM (kg ha -1 ) RD Urea (kg ha -1 )

Impacts of the changes At CNX, simulated rice yields appeared to be higher than the current level. At KKC, simulated rice yields appeared to be lower than the current level. Flooding and soil erosion

Impacts of high rainfall Too much moisture in harvested products, use more energy to dry More leaching Less efficiency of chemical fertilizer

Summary It is possible to use a process-oriented rice model to simulate the production under various climatic, edaphic, and management conditions Slight impact on rice production during the next 20 years, except much higher rainfall volume in CNX areas. Need to develop warning systems.