CBRFC Stakeholder Forum Kevin Werner Service Coordination Hydrologist Colorado Basin RFC November 3, 2011 Denver, CO

Welcome! Goals: Update stakeholders on CBRFC forecast methods and development projects Inventory / Assess stakeholder requirements Facilitate discussion and collaboration between CBRFC staff and stakeholders Agenda: Two way discussion is critical (times are approximate; we will extend for discussion as required) Forecast methodologies (Michelle Schmidt, John Lhotak, Brenda Alcorn) Forecast application (Bob Steger) 2011 Year in Review (Kevin, Brenda, Ashley Nielson) Discussion topics (Kevin, Brenda, and Michelle)

CBRFC 2010 Stakeholder Forum 3 Day Event at CBRFC in August 2010 Participants from all over CO basin attended Main focus on water supply and peak flow forecast needs in the basin Key requirements from forum: –Simple ways to communicate forecasts relative to important thresholds –Post-mortems –More info on the 30 year average update –Objective water supply forecast system –Greater CBRFC participation in stakeholder meetings –2 year forecast for Colorado –Greater transparency in forecast process Full report online (under papers and presentations -> reports) Report has been used for driving both CBRFC development as well as NOAA and other research priorities

Logistics Lunch – Cafeteria Happy Hour – Rock Bottom Brewery ( th St, Denver CO) – Need a head count Presentations – Online ( htm) htm CBRFC staff – Sidebar meetings are encouraged 4

Who we are… 5 Mission: To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment … to meet our Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs Mission: The NWS provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings … for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center generates streamflow forecasts and related datasets for the Colorado and eastern Great Basins

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center One of 13 River Forecast Centers Established in the 1940s for water supply forecasting Three primary missions: 1. Seasonal Water supply forecasts for water management 2. Daily forecasts for flood, recreation, water management 3. Flash flood warning support

CBRFC Staff Basin focal points / forecasters: Brenda Alcorn / John Lhotak (Upper Colorado) Ashley Nielson (Green + Yampa / White) Greg Smith(San Juan + Gunnison) Brent Bernard (Great Basin) Stacie Bender (Sevier) Tracy Cox (Lower Colorado) Other key staff members: Michelle Schmidt (Hydrologist In Charge) Kevin Werner (Service Coordination Hydrologist) Andy Wood (Development and Operations Hydrologist) Craig Peterson (Calibrations, Operations lead, etc) Cass Goodman (IT Support, web development, etc) Bill Reed (dam break) Kristen Yeager (student) Mike Hobbins (post-doc)

Introductions Please share your most critical forecast challenge(s) and what existing or future toolset would most effectively address it. 8

NOAA/NWS Programs 9 AHPS initiative has and is funding NWS hydrologic science and service developments. AHPS will wind down over the next few years NOAA is increasingly prioritizing water resources in its strategic planning and funding initiatives. Examples: Integrated Water Resources Science and Services National Water Science Center under construction University of Alabama National Climate Service??

Typical CBRFC annual operations 10 OctoberJanuaryAprilJuly Water supply forecast season Melt season Monsoon season Development work (focus in summer / fall)

CBRFC Management Strategy START I NFORMATION P ROVIDERS (RFC S ) P RODUCT D EVELOPERS R ESEARCH & S CIENCE Users + Existing Information Better Climate and Water Information Science / development W ORKSHOPS E DUCATION I NFORMATION P ROVIDERS (RFC S ) More Informed Stakeholders Stakeholder Engagement

We need your input! Our mission mandates us to provide information and predictions that “meet our Nation’s …environmental needs.” We want to ensure we’re providing sound science AND relevant services