(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research Primary Sources: IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5/CMIP6/SSP Plans

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Approaches to Scenario Development Previous (SRES)Current (RCPs)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 > 8.5 W/m 2 in 2100 > 8.5 W/m 2 in 2100 rising risingRCP6 ~ 6 W/m 2 in 2100 ~ 6 W/m 2 in 2100 stabilization stabilizationRCP W/m 2 in W/m 2 in 2100 stabilization stabilizationRCP2.6 peak 3 W/m 2 before 2100 peak 3 W/m 2 before 2100 decline after peak decline after peak

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (Now the previous plan)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

Veronika Eyring, Jerry Meehl, Bjorn Stevens, Ron Stouffer, Karl Taylor (CMIP Panel) Sandrine Bony and Cath Senior (WGCM Co-chairs) V. Balaji (WGCM Infrastructure Panel co-chair with K. Taylor) 16 January 2015 (updates to CMIP6 Data Request Timeline on Slide 9) Please see the CMIP Panel website for additional information and updates: climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/about-cmiphttp:// climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/about-cmip Contact for questions: CMIP Panel Chair Veronika Eyring ( The final CMIP6 Design, possibly with small modifications to the here presented figures and wording, will be published in a GMD Special Issue together with a description of the CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs and the forcing datasets. This Special Issue will open 30 April Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6): Design and Organization

The scientific backdrop for CMIP6 is the six WCRP Grand Challenges, and an additional theme encapsulating questions related to biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks. 1.Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity 2.Changes in Cryosphere 3.Climate Extremes 4.Regional Climate Information 5.Regional Sea-level Rise 6.Water Availability 7.Biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks (AIMES & WGCM) The specific experimental design is focused on three broad scientific questions: 1.How does the Earth System respond to forcing? 2.What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? 3.How can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, predictability and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP6 Design: Scientific Focus BUT NOTE: These are under review and evolving!

WCRP Grand Challenges: (1) Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity, (2) Changes in cryosphere, (3) Climate extremes, (4) Regional climate information, (5) Regional sea-level rise, and (6) Water availability, plus an additional theme on “Biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks” DECK (entry card for CMIP) i.AMIP simulation (~ ) ii.Pre-industrial control simulation iii.1%/yr CO 2 increase iv.Abrupt 4xCO 2 run CMIP6 Historical Simulation (entry card for CMIP6) v.Historical simulation using CMIP6 forcings ( ) Note: The themes in the outer circle of the figure might be slightly revised at the end of the MIP endorsement process (DECK & CMIP6 Historical Simulation to be run for each model configuration used in the subsequent CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs) With proto-DECK experiments (LMIP,OMIP etc.) in CMIP6 Tier1

CMIP Continuity Note: The themes in the outer circle of the figure might be slightly revised at the end of the MIP endorsement process

(1) What are the criteria for the DECK? The DECK experiments are chosen 1.to provide continuity across past and future phases of CMIP, 2.to evolve as little as possible over time, 3.to be well-established, 4.to be part of the model development cycle. (2) What are the criteria for the CMIP Phase X Historical Simulation? The CMIP Phase X Historical Simulation is chosen 1.to serve as a benchmark for CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs 2.to use the specific forcings consistent with Phase X of CMIP 3.to be decoupled from model development cycle if needed. Criteria for DECK and CMIP6 Historical Simulation (DECK = Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima)

ScenarioMIP: Current Status Brian O’Neill, NCAR Scenario MIP Co-chairs: Brian O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef van Vuuren Members: Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, Jerry Meehl, Richard Moss, Ben Sanderson Contributions/feedback from additional IAM researchers: Kate Calvin, Shinichiro Fujimori, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi Other MIPs: esp. LUMIP, AerChemMIP, C4MIP IAV Community: ICONICS, TGICA

CMIP6 Design

ScenarioMIP Objectives mips/scenario-mip Define and recommend an experimental design for future scenarios to be run by climate models as part of CMIP6 Also: Coordinate the provision of IAM scenario information to climate modeling groups Coordinate the production of climate model simulations and facilitate provision of output

ScenarioMIP Goals 1.Facilitating integrated research across climate science, IAM and IAV communities – Span wide forcing range and intermediate levels – Continuity with CMIP5 – Include new forcing pathways of interest 2.Anchoring targeted experiments to answer questions about specific forcings – Include scenarios with forcings (land use, aerosols) useful to other MIPs

CMIP5 Pattern scaling The Scenario Process: CMIP6 and Scenario MIP RCPs O’Neill & Schweizer, 2011; based on Moss et al. (2010). SSPs IAM, IAV studies CMIP6 More IAM, IAV studies CMIP6 Scenarios IAM scenarios

Forcing level (W/m 2 ) SSP1 Sustainability SSP2 Middle of the Road SSP3 Regional Rivalry Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP4 Inequality SSP5 Fossil-fueled Development ScenarioMIP design: Specific scenarios SRES Infeasible SSP ref. scens. CMIP5 RCP sims ~7 ~3.7 Tier 1 (H/M/L) Long-term extensions Overshoot Ensemble Tier 2 (H/M/L)

Forcing level (W/m 2 ) SSP1 Sustainability SSP2 Middle of the Road SSP3 Regional Rivalry Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP4 Inequality SSP5 Fossil-fueled Development ScenarioMIP design: Specific scenarios SRES Infeasible SSP ref. scens. CMIP5 RCP sims ~7 ~3.7 Tier 1 (H/M/L) Long-term extensions Overshoot Tier 2 (H/M/L) Ensemble

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) END Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research