OThree Chemistry MM5/CAMx Model Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis Results Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 2 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally 19 November 2003

OThree Chemistry Recent Analyses & Results  MM5 Performance Comparisons Between  Run 3 (eta.dry.rrtm.mpp),  Run 4 (eta.dry.rrtm.Zo.mpp)  Spatial Mean Temperature Time Series  Vector Mean Surface Wind Speed Time Series  Statistical Results for Surface Mixing Ratio, 2m Temps, and Wind Speeds  MM5 Performance Aloft  CAMx Operational Evaluation with with AQS Data  Current MM5/EMS-95/CAMx Diagnoses  Next Steps, Especially Resolution of Data Needs Issue…

OThree Chemistry Data Needs Issue: Key Decision Point  Of the essential data needs identified in 26 October ’03 memo, the following remain, PBL height estimates from T&B systems (hourly and daily excel files) Full set of surface met data (beyond just NWS) during Sept ’03 (e.g., CIMAS) Full set of ozonesonde data during IOP3  Project resources/schedule cannot accommodate repetitive ingestion/reformatting of data sets  Delays in receiving remaining meteorological and/or air quality data could result in their not being used.  Key Decision: Do we wait until data base is complete or do we implement full-scale MM5/CAMx diagnosis & performance evaluation activities now with what we presently have?

OThree Chemistry Peak 1-hr Ozone Measurements for Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 2m Temps MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4

OThree Chemistry Vector Mean Wind Speed MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4

OThree Chemistry MM5 Temperature Performance Statistics for the Sep ’00 Episode

OThree Chemistry MM5 Mixing Ratio Performance Statistics for the Sep ’00 Episode

OThree Chemistry MM5 Wind Speed Performance Statistics for the Sep ’00 Episode

OThree Chemistry Bias in 2m Surface Temperature MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

OThree Chemistry Error in 2m Surface Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

OThree Chemistry Accuracy of Peak 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

OThree Chemistry Bias in Surface Mixing Ratio MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

OThree Chemistry Error in Surface Mixing Ratio MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

OThree Chemistry Mean Daily Observed and Predicted Winds MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

OThree Chemistry Daily Average Wind Speed RMSE Error MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

OThree Chemistry Mean Daily Index of Agreement MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

OThree Chemistry Observed and Predicted Wind Directions MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Run 4 vs. Run 3

OThree Chemistry CAMx Performance Statistics: Base A vs. ARB004

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 16 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 17 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 18 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 19 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone: 20 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Unpaired Accuracy of Peak 1-hr Ozone MM5/CAMx Base A vs. ARB001

OThree Chemistry Normalized Bias in 1-hr Ozone MM5/CAMx Base A vs. ARB001

OThree Chemistry Gross Error in 1-hr Ozone MM5/CAMx Base A vs. ARB001

OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 1-hr Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A

OThree Chemistry Hourly Normalized Bias in Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A

OThree Chemistry Hourly Gross Error in Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A

OThree Chemistry QQ Plot of Hourly Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A 16 Sept ‘0017 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry QQ Plot of Hourly Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A 18 Sept ‘0019 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry QQ Plot of Hourly Ozone: Base A CAMx Base A 20 Sept ‘0021 Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Kern-Johnson Monitor (Med 137) CAMx Base A

OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Kern Monitor (Med 128) CAMx Base A

OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Fresno-9240 Monitor (Med 141) CAMx Base A

OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series at the Fresno -908 Monitor (Med 142) CAMx Base A

OThree Chemistry MM5 Modeling Analyses  MM5 sensitivity to surface roughness?  MM5 sensitivity to soil moisture parameters?  MM5 sensitivity to nighttime temp. FDDA?

OThree Chemistry Emissions Modeling Analyses  Effects of temperature bias on biogenic/MV emissions via new MM5 run  Investigate potential systematic biases in biogenic/MV emissions

OThree Chemistry CAMx Diagnostic Analyses  Duration of spin-up (is 18 hr spin-up sufficient?)  Model sensitivity to ICs/BCs (use of GEOS-Chem global model boundary conditions?)  Effects of temperature bias on biogenic/MV emissions and chemistry reactions  Adequacy of vertical diffusivities  Adequacy of diurnal PBL height estimates

OThree Chemistry Data Sets Needed  CIMAS meteorological data sets  IOP3 air quality monitoring data  Hourly and daily maximum PBL heights developed by T&B Systems (Lehrmann and Knuth) for Sept ’00 episode

OThree Chemistry Next Steps  Obtain updated biogenics and MV emissions inventory for Sept ’00 period.  Re-run CAMx with updated emissions  Extend MPE to include SJV Aircraft flights, multi- species evaluations  Begin Process Analysis