MDL Lightning-Based Products Kathryn Hughes NOAA/NWS/OST December 3, 2003

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Presentation transcript:

MDL Lightning-Based Products Kathryn Hughes NOAA/NWS/OST December 3,

MDL Lightning Data Sources Pre-1994 NLDN Pre-1994 NLDN SUNY-AlbanySUNY-Albany BLM – Alaska coverageBLM – Alaska coverage NLDN archive data provided by the Global Hydrology Resource Center / NASA 1994 – present NLDN archive data provided by the Global Hydrology Resource Center / NASA 1994 – present SFUS41 bulletins containing encrypted NLDN reports sent from NWS Gateway and collected at NCEP supercomputers near real-time SFUS41 bulletins containing encrypted NLDN reports sent from NWS Gateway and collected at NCEP supercomputers near real-time

Meteorological Development Lab Thunderstorm and Severe Thunderstorm Products MOS MOS Short and extended-range forecast guidance out to 192 hours in advanceShort and extended-range forecast guidance out to 192 hours in advance LAMP LAMP Very short-range forecast guidance out to 15 hours in advanceVery short-range forecast guidance out to 15 hours in advance SCAN SCAN Nowcasting 0-3 h forecast guidanceNowcasting 0-3 h forecast guidance

Use of Lightning Data Define a thunderstorm event Define a thunderstorm event As a predictand (the event we want to forecast) in statistical developmentAs a predictand (the event we want to forecast) in statistical development As a predictor to help forecast a thunderstorm eventAs a predictor to help forecast a thunderstorm event Develop lightning climatology Develop lightning climatology Quality control radar reflectivity data and severe local storm reports Quality control radar reflectivity data and severe local storm reports Verify thunderstorm forecasts Verify thunderstorm forecasts

Creating the Gridded Lightning Datasets from Observations Strikes are summed over the appropriate time period and assigned to the center of the grid boxes ×× ×× × × ×× × ××× ××× = thunderstorm = no thunderstorm

The MOS Technique The Essentials A statistical technique A statistical technique Relates weather observations to predictors Relates weather observations to predictors Numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelNumerical weather prediction (NWP) model Previous observationsPrevious observations Geoclimatic variablesGeoclimatic variables Multiple linear regression Multiple linear regression Relationships forecast future weather Relationships forecast future weather

MOS Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h Monthly Lightning Relative Frequencies 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h Monthly Lightning Relative Frequencies 20-, 40-, 48-km grid resolution 20-, 40-, 48-km grid resolution 5-km coming soon 5-km coming soon

MOS Thunderstorm Text Products Extended-Range GFS KDCA MRF MOS GUIDANCE 12/02/ UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96| | | | TUE 02| WED 03| THU 04| FRI 05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09 CLIMO X/N 43| 26 40| 29 37| 33 39| 33 34| 25 42| 31 48| TMP 36| 27 35| 31 35| 35 35| 34 31| 26 37| 33 42| DPT 14| 11 16| 22 31| 32 31| 27 23| 18 21| 25 27| CLD CL| CL PC| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| CL CL| OV CL| OV CL WND 21| 15 12| 7 8| 11 14| 17 18| 14 13| 11 10| 8 11 P12 0| 0 0| 12 49| 76 51| 58 33| 25 10| 13 13| P24 | 1| 72| 82| 58| 27| 21| Q12 0| 0 0| 0 1| 3 2| 3 0| 0 0| 0 | Q24 | 0| 2| 3| 4| 0| | T12 1| 0 0| 0 0| 5 7| 6 3| 1 0| 0 1| 0 1 T24 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 PZP 4| 6 15| 29 34| 39 18| 14 15| 12 11| 19 11| 16 2 PSN 82| 94 70| 60 27| 5 3| 27 49| 62 34| 34 37| 17 0 PRS 15| 0 15| 11 21| 7 13| 12 4| 3 1| 1 0| 4 2 TYP S| S S| Z Z| Z R| RS S| S S| S S| R R

MOS Thunderstorm Text Products Short-Range Products GFS and Eta-based messages KDCA AVN MOS GUIDANCE 7/08/ UTC DT /JULY 8 /JULY 9 /JULY 10 / HR X/N TMP DPT CLD BK SC BK BK BK SC BK BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDR WSP P P Q Q T06 3/ 0 9/ 0 48/26 32/11 13/ 1 12/ 1 35/26 26/ 8 7/ 0 34/23 T12 11/ 0 56/26 34/ 1 55/26 25/ 0 CIG VIS OBV N N N N N N N N N N HZ HZ HZ N HZ HZ BR BR BR HZ BR

MOS Thunderstorm Graphical Products 24-h forecast ending 1200 UTC 4 Dec 2003 Web-based graphics Web-based graphics 40-km GRIB files available 40-km GRIB files available 6-, 12-, 24-h forecast periods 6-, 12-, 24-h forecast periods Operational from Eta and GFS model output Operational from Eta and GFS model output

Lightning observations are used to create conditional severe weather predictands Given the occurrence of lightning, this is the probability of a severe thunderstorm event (wind, hail, tornado)

Forecast Verification Eta-based 3-h MOS forecasts on 20-km grid 26 Aug h

LAMP Localized Aviation MOS Program A very short-range forecast program NLDN data defines a LAMP thunderstorm NLDN data defines a LAMP thunderstorm 1 or more strikes in the appropriate grid box, during a 1- or 2-hr time period, out to 15 hours in advance.1 or more strikes in the appropriate grid box, during a 1- or 2-hr time period, out to 15 hours in advance. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes may be used as potential predictors by the linear regression program Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes may be used as potential predictors by the linear regression program Monthly relative frequencies will be used as potential predictors Monthly relative frequencies will be used as potential predictors Lightning strike reports are used to quality control radar reflectivity data Lightning strike reports are used to quality control radar reflectivity data

Warm Season Relative Frequency (%) of Lightning events min time periods : 10-km grid resolution

SCAN System for Convection Analysis and Nowcasting Operational 0-3 hour convective Weather Forecasts Operational 0-3 hour convective Weather Forecasts Hourly output for the conterminous United States Hourly output for the conterminous United States Probability of 2 or more lightning strikes within a 40-km square region Probability of 2 or more lightning strikes within a 40-km square region NLDN lightning strike observations are used as predictors NLDN lightning strike observations are used as predictors

Probability of 2 or more CG lightning strikes during a 0-3 h forecast period UTC 2-3 May 1997

Future Work Alaska MOS thunderstorm guidance Alaska MOS thunderstorm guidance Support for the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at 5-km resolution Support for the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at 5-km resolution Investigate oceanic data for future guidance in Hawaii and the Caribbean Investigate oceanic data for future guidance in Hawaii and the Caribbean Investigate use of a total lightning observation, in addition to the ground-based cloud-to-ground lightning observation Investigate use of a total lightning observation, in addition to the ground-based cloud-to-ground lightning observation