VALIDATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS IN THE SOUTH OF BRAZIL WITH A DENSE GAUGE NETWORK AND WEATHER RADARS – FIRST RESULTS Cesar Beneti, Leonardo Calvetti, Ieda Pscheidt, Itamar Moreira Parana State Meteorological Service - SIMEPAR Curitiba, Brazil Curitiba, Brazil Augusto J. Pereira Filho Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006

OBJECTIVES - Integrate rain gauge, radar and satellite data to improve QPE - Assimilate QPEs into operational NWP model - Use NWP QPF for hydrological forecasting - Verify QPE, QPF Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Forecasting Group 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006

SATELLITE ESTIMATES: - Period: Jan/2002 – Mar/ Area: LAT = 22S to 27S LON = 56W to 46W - Resolution: 0.25deg - Accumulation: 3hour - Techniques: CMORPH, NRLB, PERSIANN, TRMM3B42 Other Data: Raingauge, Radar 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 PEHRPP Evaluation Area

1300km 1700km Itaipu Power Plant PEHRPP Evaluation Area Curitiba SaoPaulo Rio de Janeiro Importance of the Area More than 70% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Major cities: Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba (> 80million people) Hydropower Generation in Parana represents 30% Brazil 95% Paraguay Electric Energy in Brazil is >85% Hydro-generation 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006

(mm) 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 PEHRPP Evaluation Area Precipitation in the area is related to MCS (spring/summer) and Frontal Systems (all year) Convection initiates mostly in late afternoon, propagating eastward, with high rainfall accumulation – diurnal cycle well defined.

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 PEHRPP Evaluation Area

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Hydromet information available in the area (approx. 200,000km²) - S-Band Doppler Weather Radar, with scans every 5 minutes, 4km2 resolution; - 62 Automatic hydrological stations (precipitation and river level measurements) with 15min. observations; - 37 Automatic meteorological stations (precip. + T, Td, p, wind) with hourly observations; - Satellite data processing system. - New automatic stations to be installed in – up to 140 points - Conventional gauges, daily accumulation – over 50 PEHRPP Evaluation Area

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Precipitation Distribution Spring 2004 PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES CLIMATOLOGY (SON) mm

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Precipitation Distribution Spring 2005 PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES CLIMATOLOGY (SON) mm

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Precipitation Distribution Summer 2005 mm CLIMATOLOGY (DJF) PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES

mm 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 CLIMATOLOGY (DJF) PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES Precipitation Distribution Summer 2006

Spatial Distrib. BIAS Spring (SON) 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 CMORPHNRLB TRMM3B42PERSIANN BIAS is for each grid point (.25deg x.25deg), total period: BIAS = -

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 CMORPHNRLB TRMM3B42PERSIANN Spatial Distrib. BIAS Spring (SON)

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 CMORPHNRLB TRMM3B42PERSIANN Spatial Distrib. BIAS Summer (DJF)

Diurnal Variability of Precipitation 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Distribution is: Number of events with precip larger than a threshold for each 3hour period Even distribution for Spring; Diurnal cycle more evident in Summer; Differences for rain events with higher precip.

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Diurnal Variability of Precipitation Even distribution for Spring; Diurnal cycle more evident in Summer; Differences for rain events with higher precip. Distribution is: Number of events with precip larger than a threshold for each 3hour period

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Diurnal Variability of Precipitation Even distribution for Spring; Diurnal cycle more evident in Summer; Differences for rain events with higher precip. Distribution is: Number of events with precip larger than a threshold for each 3hour period

Average Rainfall Spring (SON) rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 PRECIPITATIONMEANSTDBIASRMSECORRELGAUGE9,236,55 CMORPH3,223,22-6,0011,110,69 NRLB3,103,27-6,1211,910,54 PERSIANN2,813,23-6,4211,970,65 TRMM2,882,99-6,3511,680,64

Precipitation Event 11-Sep rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 GAUGETRMM3B42NRLBCMORPHPERSIANN RADAR

Precipitation Event 25-Oct rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 GAUGETRMM3B42NRLBCMORPHPERSIANN RADAR

Iguassu Basin Area (67446 km2) Evaluation Area (24167 km2) Precipitation in the Iguassu Basin Satellite precipitation estimations were compared with rain gauge and river flow in a sub-basin of Iguassu (area km²), upstream of the first/largest reservoir, which is mainly responsible for regulating the energy generation in the cascade. 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October rain gauges, with river level and precipitation measurements every 15minutes.

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Precipitation and StreamFlow GAUGECMORPHNRLBPERSIANNTRMM Correlation Coef. between streamflow and precipitation (12hours lag)

3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Precipitation and StreamFlow GAUGECMORPHNRLBPERSIANNTRMM Correlation Coef. between streamflow and precipitation (12hours lag)

Monthly Precipitation Accumulation for Iguassu Basin Monthly accumulation for October rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October RadarSatelliteGauge

Next Steps: Next Steps: More statistics, different periods (spatial, categorical) ; More statistics, different periods (spatial, categorical) ; Compare other satellite techniques (e.g. IR+MW) with Gauge+Radar (using Statistical Objective Analysis) data in the same area Compare other satellite techniques (e.g. IR+MW) with Gauge+Radar (using Statistical Objective Analysis) data in the same area Compare CPC/NCEP 1DD with Gauge+Radar+Sat data in the area for different periods of the year. Compare CPC/NCEP 1DD with Gauge+Radar+Sat data in the area for different periods of the year. 3 rd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006