SCEC Workshop on Earthquake Ground Motion Simulation and Validation Development of an Integrated Ground Motion Simulation Validation Program.

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Presentation transcript:

SCEC Workshop on Earthquake Ground Motion Simulation and Validation Development of an Integrated Ground Motion Simulation Validation Program

Proposition: Ground Motion simulation validation must vary by intended engineering use of simulations.

Development of an Integrated Ground Motion Simulation Validation Program Proposition: We have two validation gauntlets defined (1)SWUS Application: Estimate of strong ground motions near a stiff concrete structure (2)NGA-E Application: Develop GMPE for region with very limited observations

4 BroadBand Platform Validation: Motivation and objective Motivation SCR: NGA-East Short term goal: supplement data for development of hazard models (SWUS, NGA-East) Long term goal: develop acceptance of simulations in engineering applications Key focus: 5% damped elastic “average” PSA (f= Hz/ T= s) Correlates well with structural response – basis of design “Aggregates” complex ground motions into a simple parameter

Development of an Integrated Ground Motion Simulation Validation Program SWUS: Multiple methods, common input definition, methods allowed regional configuration 1D velocity models Common output processing Common output evaluations Part A: Selection of observed records Correction of record to “rock” conditions Comparison of amplitudes only Ensemble of valiation earthquakes with fixed fault, mag, and hypocenter, that differ by slip distribution

Development of an Integrated Ground Motion Simulation Validation Program Part B: Ensemble of scenario earthquakes at well recorded magnitude and distance. Vary earthquake hypocenter and slip distribution Comparison of amplitudes to GMPE. Define simulation median must fall within GMPE bands.

Development of an Integrated Ground Motion Simulation Validation Program How does this “gauntlet” need to change for: (1)GMS used in Evaluation of dams (2)GMS used in Evaluation of tall buildings (3)GMS used in calculating hazard curves

Development of an Integrated Ground Motion Simulation Validation Program What are the scientific hurdles to using simulations? Validation (median ground motions) –for realistic representation of Crustal models (3D) Realistic fault planes (not a single plane) Plasticity, especially near fault Site effects, including nonlinearity –for other ground motion parameters, including time domain metrics Unclear range of captured aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty –Calibrate variability within existing methods: define range of input params/output GMs –Include more methods/models

Development of an Integrated Ground Motion Simulation Validation Program Proposal: Use the BBP platform to isolate and test the sensitivity of ground motion simulation to various parameters. Techniques should be evaluated prior to use on broad impact applications like power plants, dams, and tall buildings, and hazard curves.

Evaluate impact of 3D simulations in BBP