2012 OSEP Leadership Conference Leading Together to Achieve Success from Cradle to Career Child Outcomes for Early Intervention and Preschool Special Education: The National Picture Lynne Kahn ECO at FPG Kathy Hebbeler ECO at SRI Presentation # EB7

Overview National numbers and the quality of the state data The findings for Findings for the last 3 years State variation and data quality 2Early Childhood Outcomes Center

OSEP Reporting Requirements: Child Outcomes Positive social emotional skills (including positive social relationships) Acquisition and use of knowledge and skills (including early language/ communication [and early literacy]) Use of appropriate behaviors to meet their needs 3Early Childhood Outcomes Center

If you have not seen it…. 4Early Childhood Outcomes Center

State Approaches to Outcomes Data, Approach Part C (N=56) Preschool (N=59) COS* 7 pt. scale43/56 (77%)36/59 (61%) One tool statewide 7/56 (13%)9/59 (15%) Publishers’ online analysis 3/56 (5%)6/59 (10%) Other5/56 (9%)8/59 (14%) * Child Outcomes Summary Rating

States are in various stages with regard to building their child outcomes measurement systems Some phrased in Some changed approaches 6Early Childhood Outcomes Center Child Outcomes: What we know

3 Methods Methods for Calculating National Estimates 1.States with the highest quality data weighted by child count to represent all states* 2.All states weighted by child count 3.All states averaged (each state weighted as 1) 7Early Childhood Outcomes Center *The data we will be presenting for the national picture

Identifying the States with Highly Questionable Data Criteria for eliminating states: Not reporting data on enough children Odd patterns in the data Review of method reported suggested the data were of questionable quality 8Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Continued increase in the number of states included 9Early Childhood Outcomes Center Pt. C Part B Preschool Number of States that Met Criteria for Inclusion in the National Analysis

OSEP Reporting Categories Percentage of children who: a.Did not improve functioning b.Improved functioning, but not sufficient to move nearer to functioning comparable to same-aged peers c.Improved functioning to a level nearer to same-aged peers but did not reach it d.Improved functioning to reach a level comparable to same- aged peers e.Maintained functioning at a level comparable to same-aged peers 10Early Childhood Outcomes Center 3 outcomes x 5 “measures” = 15 numbers

And now the data…. 12Early Childhood Outcomes Center And now the data….

13 *Based on 39 states with highest quality data

14 *Based on 36 States with the highest quality data.

The Summary Statements 1.Of those children who entered the program below age expectations in each outcome, the percent who substantially increased their rate of growth by the time they turned 3 [6] years of age or exited the program. 2.The percent of children who were functioning within age expectations in each outcome by the time they turned 3 [6] years of age or exited the program. 15Early Childhood Outcomes Center

16 *Based on 39 states with highest quality data

17 *Based on 36 States with the highest quality data.

Part C: Trends over Time 18Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Part C: Trends over Time 19Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Part B Preschool: Trends over Time 20Early Childhood Outcomes Center

21Early Childhood Outcomes Center Part B Preschool: Trends over Time

Looking for Patterns 22Early Childhood Outcomes Center

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Part C: States continue to report on more children 26Early Childhood Outcomes Center Total Number of Children States Included in the Child Outcomes Data Number of children reported Number of States and Jurisdictions (N=56) (N=56) (N=54) (N=54) 99 or less ,000-1, ,

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28 Total Number of Children Included in Progress Data Number of children reported Number of States and Jurisdictions FFY 2007 (N=58) FFY 2008 (N=58) FFY 2009 (N=58) FFY 2010 (N=59) 10 or fewer – – – – Part B Preschool: States continue to report on more children

Early Childhood Outcomes Center29

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75 th Percentile 50 th Percentile 25 th Percentile Minimum Maximum Outlier

Variation across states percent “a” : Part B

Variation across states percent “b” : Part B

Variation across states percent “c” : Part B

Variation across states percent “d” : Part B

Variation across states percent “e” : Part B

Variation across states in greater than expected growth (Summary Statement 1) : Part B

Variation across states in exits at age expectations (Summary Statement 2) : Part B

Variation across states percent “a” : Part C

Variation across states percent “b” : Part C

Variation across states percent “c” : Part C

Variation across states percent “d” : Part C

Variation across states percent “e” : Part C

Variation across states in greater than expected growth (Summary Statement 1) : Part C

Variation across states in greater than expected growth (Summary Statement 2) : Part C

Part C Improvement Activities # states Topic/theme 11 Training/TA on evidence based practices, effective practices, family centered services, DAP 5TACSEI/CEFEL 3 Training/TA on social emotional development (not TACSEI/CEFEL specific) 3Training/TA on more functional IFSP outcomes 2Revised IFSP format to enhance practices 4Training/TA on Literacy 2Training/TA on RBI 2Training/TA on ASD 2Training/TA on PSP 7 Other topics: coaching, instruction, self-help, transition practices, Special Quest, assistive technology, relationship based services in NE 46Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Conclusions The data show good outcomes for many children who attend Part C and Part B, Preschool. The data quality continues to get better. The data will be a powerful tool for program improvement when – The data are consistently good at the local level – States and local programs consistently use it. 47Early Childhood Outcomes Center

You might be interested in….. 48Early Childhood Outcomes Center Sponsored jointly by ECO and NECTAC

For more information…. 49Early Childhood Outcomes Center

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Identifying States with Quality Data 51Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Calculating Missing Data for Part C Proxy for missing data = Number with data for C3/ Exiting Data (618) 52Early Childhood Outcomes Center Do not expect this number to be 100%..but we don’t expect it to be 10% either

Percentage of Exiters Reported by Part C Continues to Increase 53Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Calculating Missing Data for 619 Proxy for missing data = Number with data for B7/ Child count 54Early Childhood Outcomes Center Do not expect this number to be 100%..but we don’t expect it to be 10% either

Percentage of Child Count Reported by Part B Preschool Continues to Increase 55Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Many states reporting a low percentage for “a” but still have a few outliers. Part C Part B Preschool <2% to <5% 11 5 to <7% to <13% to 49% Early Childhood Outcomes Center Number of States by % Reported in “a,”

Early Childhood Outcomes Center 57 Reason Part C state was excluded Number excluded Percent (n=51) State is sampling36 No outcomes data reported00 Reported outcomes data on less than 28% of reported exiters 36 Had at least one outcome with category a greater than 10% or category e greater than 65% 48 Reported outcomes data on less than 28% of reported exiters AND Had at least one outcome with category a greater than 10% or category e greater than 65% 12 Questionable data quality based on review of SPP/APR and knowledge gained through TA 12 States included in the analysis3976

Early Childhood Outcomes Center 58 Reason Part B state was excluded Number excluded Percent (n=51) State is sampling 48 No outcomes data reported 12 Reported outcomes data on less than 12% of child count 24 Had at least one outcome with category a greater than 10% or category e greater than 65% 48 Reported outcomes data on less than 12% of child count AND Had at least one outcome with category a greater than 10% or category e greater than 65% 00 Questionable data quality based on review of SPP/APR and knowledge gained through TA 24 No child count data available 12 Reported Summary statements but no progress categories 12 States included in the analysis 3671

Producing National Estimates Using the States with the Highest Quality Data 1.Divide the states into those with large, medium, and small child counts. 2.Identify the states that appear to have the best data. 3.Weight by child count and calculate the overall OSEP percentages using the “best data” states in each category. 4.Use the OSEP percents and total child count for each category to get the national estimates. 59Early Childhood Outcomes Center

Variation across states in Outcome 1: Part B

Variation across states in Outcome 2: Part B

Variation across states in Outcome 3: Part B

Variation across states in Outcome 1: Part C

Variation across states in Outcome 2: Part C

Variation across states in Outcome 3: Part C