Peak Oil & Finite Resources Charlie Stephens Oregon Department of Energy

The Real Message is Hidden

Energy in History

Energy Slaves

U.S. Energy Use

U.S. Energy Use, by Sector

Fuel Energy Density

US Oil Mix

Oil Demand and Discoveries

Drilling More Doesn’t Help

Decline of U.S. Production

100 Giant Fields = 65% of Total Resource Base

Post-Peak Countries

Inflated OPEC Reserves?

Oil Companies View “Gas production has peaked in North America.” Exxon “The era of easy oil is over.” Chevron

The Growing Gap

Small Difference in Peak

Effect of Growth in Oil Use on Date of Peak

Peak Scenario

Natural Gas Production Rates

NW Forecast Gas Use

Natural Gas Prices

Real Price of Oil

Components of Pump Prices U.S. Energy Information Administration

Why is Gas so Expensive?

Gas Prices - Yesterday, Today, … Tomorrow? ????

Consequences of Peak Oil

The Era of Finite Resources

Relationship of Growth in Energy and Population

Impact of Oil on Society

Oil Demand and GDP

Oil Prices and GDP

Energy Use and Real GDP

Where is the Oil?

Who Has Oil? Who Uses It?

Comparative Gasoline Use

Gallons Per Capita

Comparative Energy Use

War for Oil

In the early days, “Agriculture was not so much about food as it was about the accumulation of wealth. It benefited some humans, and those people have been in charge ever since.” Fossil Fuel and Agriculture Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe, and it requires the equivalent of three or four tons of TNT per acre for a modern American farm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every year.” 1 Fossil Fuel and Agriculture 1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, Mr. Manning was referring to the growing of the world’s ajor grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture The common assumption these days is that we muster our weapons to secure oil, not food. There's a little joke in this. Ever since we ran out of arable land, food is oil. Every single calorie we eat is backed by at least a calorie of oil, more like ten. In 1940 the average farm in the United States produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil energy it used. By 1974 (the last year in which anyone looked closely at this issue), that ratio was 1: Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture On average, the food industry uses 10 calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1 calorie of food. For pork, it’s 68 calories for 1 calorie on your plate. For beef, it’s 35 calories for 1 calorie on your plate. 1 1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture 1999 to 2003: 227 million of 320 million acres of principal crops planted in corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton. About 70% of grain crop fed to animals. 1 In 2005: 45% of operations cost for corn and wheat crops was fossil fuel 2 32% of operations cost for soybeans and cotton was fossil fuels ($120/acre for cotton) 2 1 USDA Economic Research Service 2 Global Insight;

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture By 2006: 56% of operations cost for corn and wheat crops will be energy-related expenses 1 40% of operations cost for soybeans and cotton will be energy-related expenses 1 1 Global Insight;

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture Ammonia fertilizers September 26th anhydrous ammonia price was $380/ton 1 At $12/MMBtu for natural gas, natural gas cost component for anhydrous ammonia is $400/ton 2 On average, it takes 5.5 gallons of fossil energy [or natural gas equivalent - ¾ million Btu] to restore a year's worth of lost fertility to an acre of eroded land. 3 1 Fertilizer Week America 2 Natural gas cost has been about 40% of total cost of production for anhydrous ammonia, but is rising dramatically. 3 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

Fertilizer & Food

Oil into Food 400 gallons of oil equivalents are expended annually to feed each American. · 31% for the manufacture of inorganic fertilizer · 19% for the operation of field machinery · 16% for transportation · 13% for irrigation · 08% for raising livestock (not including feed)‏ · 05% for crop drying · 05% for pesticide production · 08% miscellaneous Energy costs for packaging, refrigeration, transportation to retail outlets, and household cooking are not considered in these figures.

Food Travels ~1500 Miles

Transportation Energy Use

Driving Has Doubled

Post-Oil Transportation

Atmospheric CO2 - Mauna Loa

World Temperature History

South Cascade Glacier, WA 1928 and 2000

Arctic Ice Cap, 1979 vs 2003

Ocean Conveyor Belt

Which Future?

Summary

Thank You