The Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array: Status & Plans Mike McPhaden OCO Review 3-5 Sept 2008 RAMA PIRATA TAO/TRITON

Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array: A coordinated, sustained, multi-national effort to develop and implement moored buoy observing systems for climate research and forecasting throughout the global tropics A contribution to GOOS, GCOS, and GEOSS

Indian Ocean RAMA

DJF JJA The Monsoon Half the world’s population depends on monsoon rainfall for agriculture ITCZ

Indian Ocean Climate Science Drivers  Seasonal monsoons  Cyclones and synoptic scale events  Intraseasonal Madden Julian Oscillation (  ENSO, west coast US weather, hurricanes)  Interannual variations: the Indian Ocean Dipole  Decadal variability  Warming trends since the 1970s  Complex ocean circulation  Poorly understood biogeochemistry Indian Ocean Dipole

 Plan developed by the CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel in 2004 as part of IndOOS  Basin scale, upper ocean (~500 m) focus.  Design supported by numerical model observing system simulation studies. RAMA McPhaden et al, 2008: RAMA. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., accepted.

RAMA: Present Status 47% of sites occupied by end of 2008 (22 of 46; 15 involve PMEL) Resource Formula: Partners provide ship time (~ days) NOAA provides most equipment

2006 Indian Ocean Dipole Neutral=±0.5°C

Comparison of Oct-Nov 2004 (Normal) & Oct-Nov 2006 (Dipole) NormalDipole

Subsurface Temperature leads SST: A Source of Indian Ocean Dipole Predictability? Horii et al, 2008, GRL Thermocline temperature anomalies mediated by wind forced upwelling Kelvin waves.

Dynamics of Wyrtki Jets Overbar: depth integral from surface to H=175 m ~0 Use RAMA, Argo, QuikSCAT data to assess linear dynamical balance at 0°, 80.5°E (f=0): Nagura & McPhaden, 2008, GRL Oct 2004Sept 2006 Zonal velocity Zonal transport

Cyclone Nargis Qscat Wind 28 Apr 2008 TMI/AMSR SST 2 May °N, 90°E Spot Hourly Data (~ 8 per day)

International Cooperation USA (NOAA) and Indonesia (DKP and BPPT) sign MOU in 2007 China (SOA) and Indonesia (DKP) sign MOU in 2007 USA (NOAA) and Japan (JAMSTEC) sign MOU in 2008 USA (NOAA) and India (MoES) sign MOU in 2008 U. Paris and U. Capetown are committing ship time to expand RAMA into SW Indian Ocean/MOU’s under discussion Tsunami/RAMA cruise RV Baruna Jaya III Sept 2007

RAMA Field Work cruises, 6 ships, 5 countries ~100 sea days In 2009: 130 sea days available (73 from India), enough to add 9 more ATLAS moorings  31 or 46 sites (67% complete)

Atlantic Ocean PIRATA

PIRATA Courtesy, P. Chang Partners Brazil (INPE & DHN) & France (IRD & Meteo-France) provide logistic support & most ship time: ~300 sea days during USA (NOAA) provides most mooring equipment & data processing Focus: Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability-- 1)Atlantic meridional mode 2)Atlantic warm events 3)Climatic conditions in “hurricane alley”

Prediction & Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) NE Extension begins SW Extension begins 2005 SE Extension begins 2006 Status in 2008 Status in 2004 CLIVAR/GOOS Review of PIRATA, 2006: “..the main backbone of the Tropical Atlantic Observing System”

Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic PIRATA Introduced October 1998 Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA)

Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic PIRATA Introduced October 1998 Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic PIRATA Redefined August 2008

Pacific Ocean TAO/TRITON

TAO/TRITON TAO/TRITON Array & the El Ni ñ o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle  Implemented as part of TOGA  Presently a U.S./Japan collaboration  Transition to operations at NDBC underway

Current Conditions

Status--  FY 05: NDBC assumes responsibility for TAO management  FY 06: TAO DAC transferred to NDBC  FY 07: TAO field operations transferred to NDBC  FY Initial tests of NDBC prototype ATLAS refresh mooring system (COTS)  FY 09: If prototypes work, parallel testing next to legacy ATLAS in Pacific for 1 yr  FY 10: Evaluation and verification of refresh ATLAS system performance  FY 11-12: capitalization and replacement of all 55 legacy ATLAS with refreshed ATLAS TAO Transition The Plan: 3-year transition starting in FY 05 and ending in FY 07 CONCLUSION: TAO Transition will take at least 8 years to complete, not 3. QUESTIONS: 1)What went wrong with the original plan? 2)Will the transition be successful? 3)Is TAO transition a good model for future transitions? 4)Should the climate community be concerned?