The Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Hurricanes Melissa Nord EAS 4480.

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Presentation transcript:

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Hurricanes Melissa Nord EAS 4480

What You Will See & Hear (or so I hope…) Introduction Hypothesis Method Data and Results Conclusions Further Work

What is the Madden- Julian Oscillation? Intra-seasonal variability (30-90 days) Large scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and deep tropical convection Propagates eastward 4-8 m/s above warm parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans

Characteristics of the MJO Eastward progression of large regions of enhanced/suppressed tropical rainfall o Indian & Pacific o Atlantic -> Lower Amplitude Wet Phase Dry Phase Active Phase tracked using degree of outgoing long-wave IR o Lower IR, stronger convection

Characteristics of the MJO Enhanced Surface Westerly Winds occur near the east side of the active convection Easterly winds to the west of the enhanced rainfall area Due to divergence aloft over t-storms

Influence on Tropical Cyclogensis Modulates enhanced/suppressed activity by providing a large scale environment that is favorable/unfavorable for development Ascending Motion Descending Motion MJO and favorable region for TC development both progress eastward together Inverse relationship NW Pac and N Atl Basin o Opposite MJO Modes

Daily MJO Indicies Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) applied to 200 hPa for ENSO Neutral & Weak Winters o 1 st EEOF = 10 time-lagged patterns o Construct ten (10) MJO Indicies by regressing the data onto the ten patterns of the first EEOF. Blue = Enhanced Convection Red = Suppressed Convection

A Closer Look at MJO Index

Data MJO Index 1-10 Atlantic Hurricanes By Month Problem: o MJO = Weekly o Atlantic Hurricanes = Monthly

Looking at Hurricanes in Atlantic

A Look at the MJO Index

Just Looking at 1978

1978 Hurricane Histogram

Trying to Find Correlation Between MJO Index and Hurricane Frequency %Correlations... T test [h, significance, ci] = ttest2(Hurr_test, Index_1978_2) [h, significance, ci] = ttest2(Hurr_test, Index_1978_6) %Correlation Coefficient corrcoef(Index_1978_2, Hurr_test) corroef(Index_1978_6, Hurr_test) corrcoef(Index_1978_2, Index_1978_6) %Polyyy p = polyfit(Index_1978_2, Index_1978_6, 1) p2 = polyfit(Index_1978_2, Hurr_test, 1) p3 = polyfit(Index_1978_6, Hurr_test, 1) DID NOT WORK WELL SINCE SO FEW DATA POINTS!

What I’m Doing This Weekend CODING! Better Sorting Through Data Figuring Out Problem of Months Vs. Weeks T-test, F-Test, Correlation Coefficient, Pearson Correlation Coefficient, Autocorrelation, Periodogram, Least Squares Regression, and Time Series Analysis Phase Lag!

Sources rr.web.pdf rr.web.pdf ey%26HartmannScience.pdf CPC MJO Information Wikipedia

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