Inflation Report February 2010

Demand

Chart 2.1 Nominal GDP (a) (a) At current market prices.

Chart 2.2 Contributions to quarterly growth in consumer spending (a) (a) Chained-volume measures. Excluding non-profit institutions serving households. Figures in parentheses are shares in total real consumption in Shares do not sum to 100 due to rounding.

Chart 2.3 Contributions to four-quarter growth in real post-tax labour income (a) Household taxes include income tax and Council Tax. (b) General government benefits minus employees’ National Insurance contributions. (c) Consumer expenditure deflator (including non-profit institutions serving households). (d) Wages and salaries plus mixed income.

Chart 2.4 Household saving ratio (a) (a) Percentage of household post-tax income.

Chart 2.5 Contributions to four-quarter growth in whole-economy investment (a) (a) Chained-volume measures. The figures in parentheses show shares in the level of whole-economy investment in Because of rounding, the sum of the bars may differ from the total line. Shares do not sum to 100 due to rounding. (b) Includes dwellings investment and costs associated with the transfer of ownership of buildings, dwellings and non-produced assets, primarily stamp duty on housing transactions and estate agents’ fees.

Chart 2.6 Business investment to GDP ratio (a) (a) Chained-volume measures. Recessions are defined as two consecutive quarters of falling output (at constant market prices) estimated using the latest data.

Chart 2.7 Agents’ survey: key drivers of investment decisions by companies cutting investment (a) (a) The balances show the proportion of companies, weighted by turnover, citing each factor as an important influence on capital expenditure decisions. Respondents could select more than one option. The survey was carried out between 16 October and 23 November 2009.

Chart 2.8 BCC business confidence (a) (a) Net percentage balance of companies who believe turnover will improve over the next twelve months. Data are non seasonally adjusted.

Chart 2.9 Stockbuilding (a) (a) Chained-volume measures. Excluding the alignment adjustment.

Chart 2.10 Public sector net borrowing (a) Sources: HM Treasury and ONS. (a) The chart shows financial year net borrowing data. The orange bars show HM Treasury 2009 Pre-Budget Report projections.

Chart 2.11 Imports and import-weighted demand (a) Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. (a) Chained-volume measures. (b) Excluding the estimated impact of MTIC fraud. (c) Import-weighted demand is calculated by weighting household consumption (including non-profit institutions serving households), whole-economy investment (excluding valuables), government spending, stockbuilding (excluding the alignment adjustment) and exports by their respective import intensities. The import intensities are estimated using the 1995 ONS Input-Output Analytical Tables.

Chart 2.12 Survey indicators of global output growth (a) Sources: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Markit Economics. (a) Based on the results of surveys in 29 countries. These countries account for an estimated 84% of global GDP. A figure over 50 indicates rising output compared with the previous month, and a figure below 50 indicates falling output.

Chart 2.13 Industrial production in selected economies (a) Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. (a) Volume measures. Country data are weighted together according to shares in world production.

Tables

Table 2.A Expenditure components of demand (a) (a) Chained-volume measures. (b) Includes non-profit institutions serving households. (c) Whole-economy dwellings investment. (d) Excludes the alignment adjustment. (e) Percentage point contributions to quarterly growth of real GDP. (f) Goods and services, excluding the estimated impact of missing trader intra-community (MTIC) fraud. Percentage changes on a quarter earlier Averages –2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Household consumption (b) Government consumption Investment of which, business investment of which, dwellings investment (c) Final domestic demand Change in inventories (d)(e) Alignment adjustment (e) Domestic demand ‘Economic’ exports (f) ‘Economic’ imports (f) Net trade (e) Real GDP at market prices

Percentage changes on a quarter earlier Averages – Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Euro area n.a. United States Japan n.a. Table 2.B Final domestic demand in the United Kingdom’s main trading partners (a) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and Japanese Cabinet Office. (a) Chained-volume measures.

Averages – H1Q3Q4Jan. Manufacturing BCC orders (b) n.a. CBI orders (b) n.a. CIPS/Markit orders (c) Services BCC orders (b) n.a. Table 2.C Export orders (a) Sources: BCC, CBI and CIPS/Markit. (a) Dates refer to the period in which the survey was conducted. (b) Percentage balance of respondents reporting orders to be ‘up’ relative to ‘down’ over the past three months. Data are quarterly. (c) A reading above 50 indicates increasing orders/new business this month relative to the situation one month ago. Averages of monthly data.

Influences on UK exports

Chart A OECD imports and UK exports (a) Sources: OECD and ONS. (a) Volume measures. (b) Contains data for all 30 OECD countries, converted from national currencies into US dollars. Services imports are calculated as the difference between total imports and goods imports.

Chart B Sterling goods export prices and CBI indicator of manufacturing competitiveness Sources: CBI and ONS. (a) The question asks: ‘What has been the trend in your competitiveness over the past three months?’. The balance is produced by weighting together balances for EU and non-EU markets using shares in nominal goods trade.