Andrei V. Belyi Dept on international energy politics Higher School of Economics, Moscow

interest in the ECT lies in the Protection of Russian investments in the EU Fossil energies are rare subjects to trade restrictions, whereas Russia insists on nuclear materials to be included to the ECT, which is still not the case Transit Protocol is pending because Russia is concerned about securing long term gas supply agreements with the EU Russian view Non-participation of the majority of producing states makes the ECT the EU-power tool for Russia

Russian Upstream (production and new resource development) Access to Pipelines and export Downstream European markets Financial flows About 35% of EU oil imports and 40% of EU gas imports are from Russia Russia represents the largest short and mid term resource potential in hydrocarbons located next to the EU About 40% of Russian budget revenues are provided by the oil and gas exports to the EU EU’s downstream represents the short and mid term possibility for export diversification and higher capitalization for Russian energy companies Interest for EU Investors Interest for Russian Investors What are the investors interests?

Russia’s concern: security of demand and of investments into downstream of importing states EU’s concern: security of supply and of investments into upstream of producing states Why regime? To facilitate upstream resources of energy- producers and to keep control of downstream via supply diversification to enhance competition Why regime? To facilitate downstream markets access of energy-importers and to keep control over resources and over access to pipelines to have pay-back stability Since the G-8 Summit in 2006 we perceive an explicit conflict of values:

Political accord between ideologically different blocks Monopoly on exports and monopoly on imports « Seminar diplomacy » and the Energy Charter Process Trend towards liberalization of cross-border investment flows Security-driven energy relations Extreme politization or securitization of energy trade Before s Since 2000s Since the politization of EU-Russia energy trade, a reciprocity principle becomes a factor of the governance

The event received a wide mass-media coverage in Europe, which lead to an over-exaggeration of a threat (and hence extreme politization) January 2006: Russia diminished gas supplies to Ukraine due to the tariff related conflict, some supplies were disrupted to the EU Though according to Russia, Ukraine violated transit provisions, Russia did not use the ECT framework for the transit dispute settlement mechanism Reason: too much power allocated to the conciliator (decides on volumes and supplies, read on political issues), whereas Gazprom has been able to resolve disputes bilaterally

Consequences of securitization: restriction of investments European reciprocity Russian reciprocity Reciprocity is an instrument to export the EU liberalization model to the third countries Third Energy Package and « Gazprom clause » aim to establish the EC-level investment restriction on transmission Political leverage on the access to downstream Reciprocity is a political accord to access investments from third countries Subsoil Law and Strategic Sectors Law establish new rules on governmental control over energy resources Political leverage on the access to upstream “Reciprocity” is a negative-sum game that is talked about as a positive-sum game

Lisbon Treaty rejection means there is still no energy nor investment competences at the supranational level the two subjects, in which Russia is particularly interested to co-operate with the EU Russian non-ratification of the ECT and rejection of the EU « energy market » acquis the framework within which the EU conceives relations with Russia In turn, Russia conceives the competition in gas sector as a dangerous move for the security of demand

Investment arbitration mechanisms: Pro: Russian companies can rise investment and contract claims against the European Community or its Member States Contra: Fear of a boomerang effect (i.e. Yukos case) Investment protection: Pro: Russian companies can protect their investments in the EU Contra: pre-investment phase is not stipulated in the article 10

 Without a clear compromise on the pre-investment phase non-discrimination in European downstream, Russia might keep delaying Transit Protocol deal and hence delay the ratification  The ECT allows to bypass EU-Russia framework and to move towards a multilateral approach, where the EU does not need to have a supranational competence in energy and investments and where other energy producing states are included  The « Energy governance » is clearly hindered by the extreme politization of the EU- Russia energy relations A secret of politics? Make good treaty with Russia (Otto von Bismark, 1863)

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