1 Denver World Oil Conference The Peak Oil Context PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Chairman & CEO Petrie Parkman & Co. November 10, 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Denver World Oil Conference The Peak Oil Context PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Chairman & CEO Petrie Parkman & Co. November 10, 2005

2 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co.  World daily production: 84 million barrels/day  World excess capacity: mmb/d (Refining capacity a determinant of “relevant capacity”)  US daily consumption: 21 mmb/day  Global annual decline rate: 4% - 6% / year?  Net Non-OPEC production likely to peak around 2010  OPEC nations may not reach governmental projections  Reasonable world peak oil date: ? Initial Perspectives and Assertions:

3 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Current World Production in Serious Decline (Millions b/d) Conclusion: Depletion Matters

4 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. End of Decade “Potential” New Production Sources Conclusion: Project Timing will be Critical

5 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Morphing Toward Peak Oil? Conclusion: Ex the Optimistic Case, There Remains Limited Supply to Accommodate Economic Growth (millions b/d)

6 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Source: International Energy Agency OPEC Excess Crude Production Capacity ? Conclusion: Absent a Global Recession, the Margin for Error is Small Global Demand (MMb/d)

7 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Maturing of Non-OPEC Production In Decline: United States United Kingdom Egypt Pakistan Congo Norway Australia Oman Columbia Argentina Gabon New Zealand Syria Peru Tunisia At Plateau: Mexico Brunei Malaysia China India (?) Denmark Yemen Canada (conventional and non-Arctic only) Conclusion: Ex Caspian Sea, West Africa, and Unconventional and Arctic North American Sources, Non-OPEC Production Probably is Close to Irreversible Decline

8 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co.  Discoveries precede extraction; a peaking in discoveries precedes a peaking in production  World oil discoveries peaked in 1964  In fields, basins, “provinces,” and the world: we tend to find the biggest oil structures early on  Today, we find 1 barrel for every 3-4 consumed This concept is not disputed Technology hasn’t changed this reality

9 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. We found the most oil during the 1960s; production follows discoveries; technology hasn’t helped much Billion bbl/year

10 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Global Natural Gas: Where are we headed? Source: China Newsphoto/Reuters/Corbis.

11 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Oil to Gas Convertibility per Futures Strip Conclusion: Fear of LNG, Unconventional Gas, Demand Destruction Lives! Nov-05 Oil to Gas - 5:1 Jan-08 Oil to Gas - 6:1 Dec-10 Oil to Gas - 8:1

12 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Conclusion: Dynamic Market Shifts in the Offing

13 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. World oil peak: range is broad by well- informed estimators; most by 2015 Since 2000: BP – Hirsch et al: 2016 Matt Simmons: 2006 – 2008 (Bush team advisor/insider) Campbell: 2007 – 2010 Deffeyes: Thanksgiving day 2005 Walter Youngquist: 2007 – 08

14 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co kb/d 0 kb/d 5000 kb/d Lower 48 AlaskaDeepwater U.S. Oil Production Big, New Discoveries & New ‘Technology’...only shift the curve Lower 48 AK DW Why would U.S. Production Peak? What about new discoveries like Alaska? What about new technologies and investments? My Young Analyst Perceptions Source: rao-D cityworks

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