Status Quo Thinking “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” – Lord Kelvin, 1895 “A severe depression like that of is outside the range of probability.” – Harvard Economic Society, 1929 “With only fifty foreign cars on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big stake in the U.S.” – Business Week, 1968 “I think there is a world market for about five computers.” – Thomas Watson - IBM, 1943 “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” – Ken Olson - DEC, 1977 “We don’t like [the Beatles’] sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out.” – Decca Recording, 1962 “No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping.” – Secretary of the Navy, December 4, 1941 Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997 More paper is better!

USC Business Development Model Scenario Description U N I V E R S I T Y O F S O U T H E R N C A L I F O R N I A E N G I N E E R I N G T E C H N O L O G Y T R A N S F E R C E N T E R Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997

Organizational Chart Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997 USC Engineering Technology Transfer Center

The RTTC Network Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997 We provide: Affiliates in Every State Information Dissemination Technical Assistance Regional Incubators Technology Licensing Cooperative R&D Reimbursable Technology Development Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR)

“There is a better and easier way to do everything — find it!” - Thomas Edison Disciplined method for imagining the future by examining the joint simultaneous impact of several uncertainties Attempts to identify patterns and clusters Particularly good when examining revolutionary change Compensate for underprediction (most common error by institutions) and overprediction (most common error by futurists) Looks to plot a middle ground by using: –incremental expansion of trends (momentum) –possible states of a highly uncertain factor (interest rates) Innovation Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997

Management Trends Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997

Seattle Aerospace/Defense Richland Business Services San Francisco Bay Area Electronics Machinery and Systems Biomedical Products Los Angeles Aerospace/Defense Merced Agriculture and Food Products Las Vegas Tourism and Recreation Reno Modesto Agriculture and Food Products Electronics Machinery and Systems Biomedical Products Business Services Info/Media and Entertainment Educational Services Tourism and Recreation Financial Services Transportation and Distribution Home and Lifestyle Products Fashion, Apparel and Textiles Health Services Agriculture and Food Processing Energy and Process Materials Forest Products Metals Construction Products Industry Clusters Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: Sept. 5, 1997 for the Far West Region