1.How much adaptation do we need within the period to ~2030 to cope with ‘inevitable’ climate change? (lines up with 2030 RCP) 1.What climate changes (global to local) are inevitable in that time frame? 2.What range of impacts (global to local) result from those climate commitments in that time frame? Net of adaptation and not – metrics for impacts suitable for adaptation, subject to development scenarios 3.What is likely – possible – emerging risks? 4.How do we manage the uncertainty embedded in climate change (natural and anthropogenic) and resulting impacts? 5.Can societies/ecosystems adapt to those impacts? 6.What are the societal constraints/opportunities that limit/allow adaptation? 7.Who most needs to adapt? 8.What are the unintended consequences of adaptation (maladaptation), especially for mitigation?

Instructions to other communities; what we need from other communities Climate modelling - climatology – Decadal projections – Time series – ‘Whole of climate’ approach involving natural variability -Projections of changing extremes -Need to engage with 2030 RCP and current emission scenarios & modelling Social projections – national international data – Demographics – infrastructure – institutions – economies – Stakeholder-derived scenarios – GEO4, MEA, IEA Adaptation processes – case studies, stakeholders – Development pathways, existing policies – Ecosystem processes – Longitudinal studies Monitoring and data collection agencies – Process studies in many disciplines

Propose strategy for implementation wrt proposals, interact with other communities etc International program – Project design available to in country researchers – Other programs IGBP, IHDP, ESSP, UNEP/UNDP?, WCRP (climate simul. regional scale), Macarthur F Sponsors & funding? Core of researchers/groups agree to take program design on Promote during near term meetings – Amsterdam, Brasil, WMO WCC3 Medium term meeting IAV community

Framing the question We would like to be able to characterize impacts in the following way – Takes into account sequence of social responses over multiple time frames, including adaptive measures (covering both co-benefits and co-harms) – Takes into account multiple stresses and contingencies – Takes into account variance as well as means – Is relevant to risk management practices that concern themselves with high impact, low probability events. – Takes into account differential impacts across multiple temporal and spatial scales – Takes into account impacts across multiple sectors in an integrated manner – Takes into account impacts that are of concern to decision makers even if they are not outputs of current climate models

Research Questions 1.How do plausible scenarios of multiple drivers interact to shape likely climate impacts? 2.How do potential adaptations interact across multiple sectors to affect overall impacts? 3.What uncertainties in climate models are most relevant for understanding climate impacts and for making decisions? 4.What methodologies are most effective for producing generalizations and lessons learned from disparate case studies? 5.What methodologies are effective for comparing costs of impacts against costs of adaptation, in a way that takes into account all relevant social practices.

What we need from other climate change / global change communities Quantification of uncertainty in climate models Richer set of plausible physical impacts than just what comes out of models – precipitation patterns – extreme weather events – Low probability, high impact events Collaboration in production of scenarios that are impact and adaptation relevant – E.g. Multiple stresses, extreme events, surprises

Implementation Scenarios of socioeconomic factors – Go beyond population and GDP Interactions with key power brokers and funders (e.g. World Bank) NAS standing committee or similar overarching institution Education and Training Centers of Excellence Outreach capacity Monitor practices relevant to adaptation

Important research dimensions: 1. What are the processes, relationships and interactions in human and natural systems that result in vulnerability to climate change? 2. Temporal dimension-- look back in time and see how processes interact over time empirically. Longitudinal studies. 3. Begin to model vulnerability looking in the future (not only as projections, need to look at scenarios and surprises) 4. Dynamic models. Coupled human-natural system dynamics. As natural system changes, humans change. Changing pattern of vulnerability.

Key Networking/Implementation Implications: A. Connect up with DRR community, health community B. For modeling we need to connect with demographic community, IAM community, political scientist/governance/institution community. These are not core concerns of IAV but need to make critical linkages there to accomplish IAV work. C. Need to resolve who the clients are for this research. We think it should go beyond traditional IPCC clients. Without knowing clients, we won’t know the key contexts. What are the processes, relationships and interactions in human and natural systems that result in vulnerability to climate change in order to facilitate effective adaptation and adaptive capacity?

What are the interactions between mitigation and adaptation? Where do they overlap, feedback and mutually exclusive How much adaptation do we need beyond 2030, at max, min and range of mitigation levels Investigate limits of adaptation informing the need for mitigation; what are the residual risks? Use range of scenarios to assess adapt and mitigation; investigate high consequence risks How much does early mitigation reduce requirements for adaptation later on? What are the local synergies between adaptation and mitigation? What are the synergies/barriers for adaptation if strong mitigation is effected? How are mitigation and adaptation organised in the policy and institutional sense? Scale is key Investigate distribution and levels of adaptive capacity for different emissions pathways Co-benefits and risks of mitigation and adaptation technologies (& geo- engineering)? Global model inter-comparisons

Interactions with other communities IAM community Want info on impacts, adaptive capacity etc Want costs of adaptation for economic assessment Estimates of uncertainties in impacts, adaptation Testing and developing determinants of vulnerability, adaptive capacity (multiple metrics) With IAM community, explore development pathways in different model environments Building local and regional info into IAMs Testing metrics and parameters, for valuation of impacts Stakeholders interested in joint policy outcomes, co- benefits etc.

Propose strategy for implementation wrt proposals, interact with other communities etc Session with the EMF on how to set this up – also in Europe, Japan? IAMC Work into WGIII programs Scenario and storyline parallel process IHDP open meeting (modelling session)