The History of the Future The present and how we got here Some clues about thriving in the 21 st century

“The art of prophecy is very difficult especially with respect to the future” Mark Twain

Learning “Brain work will cause women to go bald” Prof Hans Friedenthal 1914

Entertainment “Speaking movies are impossible. When a century has passed, all thought of so- called speaking movies will have been abandoned” D.W. Griffith Hollywood Producer

Work “By 1960, Work will be limited to three hours a day” John Langdon-Davies 1936

Communications Technology “ We are not going to make personal computers. There is a market for only five of them worldwide” Thos Watson IBM, 1956 “An amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them” President Hayes to AG Bell, 1876 “One day there will be one of them in every City” Chicago 1873

Transport “ The improvement in city conditions by the general adoption of the motor car can hardly be overestimated. Streets clean, dustless and odourless, with light rubber- tyred vehicles moving swiftly and noiselessly over their smooth expanse….” Scientific American 1899 Cars moving swiftly and noiselessly

Surgery “The abolition of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it today. Knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the patient’s awareness” Dr. Alfred Velpeau 1839, seven years before the intro of anaesthesia

Health “ A child born in the year 2000 has a good chance of not dying at all” Jaques Bergier, 1968

Health “We just won’t have arthritis in the year 2000” Dr William Clark, President of the Arthritis Foundation, 1966

Co-Creating Our Future The future is not some place we are going, but one we are creating. The paths to it are not found but made, and the activity of making them changes both the maker and the destination. John Schaar Science Advisor President Richard Nixon Foresight Canada

Develop a future consciousness to inform the present

How did we get here?

Enlightenment Materialism Modernism Three broad idea waves, four broad Public Health policy waves

Costing an arm and a leg For how long? Cost of NHS time one arm One leg Two arms one leg two arms two legs actual envisaged Desired?

The (really) big picture

Source: The Guardian, summer 2007

“If you read only one book this year about the end of civilisation, let this be it.” Quill and Quire

External world changes Internal world must catch up Alignment Dislocated

The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. …A Change of Age….

Zinn Join all the dots Four lines No lifting pencil No retracing steps

1. the “ globalization ” of everyday life Cognitive Spatial Temporal Materialism Individualism Consumerism DETERRITORIALISATION Kickbusch

Political determinants…… 1. The redirection of global health functions from interstate mechanisms to a growing but fragmented group of actors From the center….. Kickbusch

…..to a fragmented POLITICAL ECOSYSTEM BONO CLINTON MSF WEF PHA World Bank Kickbusch

Healthscapes: Food – Drink - Obesity Kickbusch

(O’Hara)

Control Homogenisation Abstraction Fragmentation Alienation Participation Diversity Inclusion Fear Love Disappointment and fear Hope and play Participation Giving & Receiving Exploration Imagination Participation Qualitative Control Production & Consumption Data Prediction Quantative

Some characteristics of 5w system? Integrative internal external, objective/subjective Ecological systems and wholeness, social and human Ethical individual human rights integrated with collective dimensions of equity, trust Creative to imagine and then create something better Beautiful raises spirits, sustains moves to act

Centre for Medical Humanities Emergent qualities of a ‘fifth wave’ 1.Complex adaptive systems with multiple points of equilibrium 2.Rebalancing our mindset – ‘anti’ to ‘pro’, from dominion and independence to interdependence and co-operation 3.Rebalance models – mechanistic to organic 4.Rebalance our orientation – objective to subjective 5.Develop a future consciousness to inform the present 6.Iterate and scale up through learning – try things out and share. Hanlon, et al, 2011

Co-creating Health Centre for Integrative Care Glasgow Presence The Dance Mobilising (Inner) Resources Secondary care, primary care, community

More dots? No. of dotsNo of possible linksNo of possible patterns trillion (9 zeros) quadrillion (12 zeros)

Why do we always learn about Geology the day after an earthquake Ralph Waldo Emerson

time Prevalence/success H1 H2 H3 Three Horizons Twilight Transitional Transformed

Variant 1: Collapse and Recovery In this variant the supremacy of the Horizon 1 paradigm creates runaway success but at the expense of some critical condition. Failure to capture coupled with weaker innovation in Horizon 2 leads to sudden collapse. Horizon 2 is unable to make up for this. In the background Horizon 3 continues to develop and after the initial upset and chaos of the collapse demonstrates its ability to match the new conditions and emerges as the next viable paradigm. PREVALENCE TIME H1 H2 H3

Variant 2: Capture and Extension Horizon 1 is challenged by changing conditions and there is strong innovation opportunity taken by Horizon 2. However, each wave of innovation is captured by Horzon 1 and applied to extend its life. This may go on for several cycles. Horizon 3 remains in the background since it is so different from Horizon 1 that there is no place for it in the mainstream. It continues to languish in the margins until a much larger and long term change occurs. PREVALENCE TIME H1 H2 H3

time prevalence Three Horizons H1 concerns H2 innovationsH3 aspirations H3 in the present Stop Keep Twilight Transition Transformed