LEARNING FOR A NONLINEAR WORLD: Cultivating a Prospective Mind 21 ST Century Learning Leadership Forum October Banff, Alberta Thomas Homer-Dixon Balsillie School of International Affairs Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation Waterloo, Ontario

We live in a world in which key systems are under rising STRESS

Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period Source: update of Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, , 1999.

Partly because of this rising stress, we also now live in a world of constant SURPRISE

“Nobody understands who owes what to whom—or whether they have the ability to pay. Counterparties have become afraid to trade with each other.... The crisis continues because nobody knows what anything is worth. You simply cannot have a functioning market under such circumstances.” Joe Nocera, The New York Times, September 20, 2008

Increasing systemic stress and more frequent surprises are due to RISING HUMAN USE OF NATURAL SYSTEMS GREATER COMPLEXITY OF SOCIAL, TECHNOLOGICAL, AND HUMAN- ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly of MACHINES to seeing it as composed mainly of COMPLEX SYSTEMS

MACHINES show proportionality of cause and effect, exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behavior, and can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts) so they can be managed, because their behavior predictable.

COMPLEX SYTEMS show disproportionality of cause and effect (their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies), can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums), and are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties) so they CANNOT be easily managed, because their behavior is often unpredictable.

What is causing our our economies and societies to become more complex? Performance improvements at the level of system units, i.e., organizations, people, and technologies, especially advances in information technology

Result: Our networks have more nodes, denser links, and faster movement of material, energy, and information along these links

Rising social, economic, and technological complexity can be a good or bad thing

Opaqueness and uncertainty System flips and extreme events (including cascading failures) Cognitive and managerial overload and Brittleness Complexity sometimes causes

In this new world of constant surprise and soaring complexity, what should we do?

1. BUILD RESILIENCE Resilient people, institutions and societies can withstand shock without catastrophic failure, have the capacity for self-reliance, and are creative in response to novel challenges.

2. CULTIVATE A PROSPECTIVE MIND A prospective mind is open to reason and evidence, has a “ street sense ” for science, remains flexible in response to constant change (so isn’t surprised by surprise), is curious about new ideas and facts learns from failed experiments, and sees opportunity in crisis.

FOUR CONCEPTUAL SHIFTS needed for a Prospective Mind Systems: From MECHANICAL to COMPLEX Self: From CONSUMER to PROBLEM SOLVER Knowledge: From SPECIALIZED to INTEGRATED Values: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL and EXISTENTIAL

Three Categories of Value Simple preferences (utilities) Moral values (oughts) Existential/spiritual values