A COMPLETED HURRICANE SURGE VISUALIZATION MODEL AND ONGOING EFFORTS TO USE THE MODEL TO ASSESS PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF RISKS DUE TO STORM SURGE B. Lee.

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A COMPLETED HURRICANE SURGE VISUALIZATION MODEL AND ONGOING EFFORTS TO USE THE MODEL TO ASSESS PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF RISKS DUE TO STORM SURGE B. Lee Lindner, Stephen Duke, Janet Johnson College of Charleston Frank Alsheimer National Weather Service, Charleston 1

Background CHARLESTON HAS EXPERIENCED MANY HITS OR NEAR MISSES IN THE PAST 20 YEARS 93% OF OUR 202 SURVEY SUBJECTS HAD EXPERIENCED HURRICANE EFFECTS YET, MOST FAILED TO UNDERSTAND BASIC HURRICANE ADVISORIES HALF DID NOT REALIZE STORM SURGE IS THE MAIN THREAT MOST HAD NO CLUE WHAT A PARTICULAR SURGE DEPTH MEANT RELATIVE TO THEIR HOME ELEVATION MOST DID NOT HAVE AN EVACUATION PLAN HALF FELT THE NWS OVERSTATES THE DANGERS 2

Sullivan’s Island, SC 3

4

Surge Visualization Model INTERACTIVE WEB SITE Background on Study Basic Hurricane Physics Hurricane Surge Visualization Model Error Warnings DATA ON ONE THOUSAND LANDMARKS (every 2 blocks) DATABASE OF 50 SLOSH SIMULATIONS (Thanks Brian Jarvinen) COMBINE SLOSH, ELEVATION, TIDAL DATA OVERLAY WATER DEPTH ON PHOTOGRAPHS 5

GIS map, Charleston County 6

Zoom to Sullivan’s Island 7

Category 1 8

Category 5 9

10

Procedure SURVEY HUNDREDS OF RESIDENTS SITE ADDRESS ONLY RELEASED TO SURVEY SUBJECTS DEMOGRAPHICAL DATA UNDERSTANDING OF HURRICANE PHYSICS EXPLORED BEFORE AND AFTER USING THE SITE EXPLORE UNDERSTANDING OF UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECAST, ELEVATIONS, WAVES, INLAND FLOW, ETC. DETERMINE PROBLEM AREAS FOR FUTURE MODELS PUBLISH 11

Subjects Interviewed by local TV broadcaster Shown in primetime sweeps week Few in audience visited website Only 10% did the second survey Additional subjects found through personal interaction at events 12

SITE prosper.cofc.edu/~hurricanesurgesimulator/index.htm l prosper.cofc.edu/~hurricanesurgesimulator/index.htm l SKIP SURVEYS BY SIMPLY CLICKING CONTINUE DATA NEEDS TO BE JUST LOCAL RESIDENTS COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS WELCOME 13

Summary PUBLIC HAS POOR UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SURGE STANDARD FLOODZONE MAPS ARE NOT EFFECTIVE FOR MOST PEOPLE HOW EFFECTIVE WILL AN INTERACTIVE WEB SITE USING LOCAL LANDMARKS BE AT CONVEYING RISK OF HURRICANE SURGE? USE AS AN EDUCATIONAL TOOL DETER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LYING AREAS? THANKS TO THE NOAA (UCAR) COMET PROGRAM! 14

Valued Contributors Nancy BartonRobert BrightShayna Brisacher Stephen BrueskeAnne ChalmersCharles Cockcroft Rhonda CrawleyJessica DaroneClaire Dupont Ashley A FieldsKatherine A FrederickKristen Leigh Frye Alexandra T GatlinLesley GermanowEvgeni Gurovich Kelly HarperBrandon HarrisRaymond Harris Jerry HarrisonTobias John HawthorneDaniel Johnson George 'Pat' KablickDr. Charles KaiserDr. Robert Kennedy Timmy Hartt KentAmber KussAndrew Lassister Cang LeDr. Norm LevineAndrew Livingston Jennifer L. MantiniAndrew MillerDr. Laney Mills Brad MilnesChinedu NwadiugwuNorton Brice Orange Kristi OwensFrederick “Elliot” QuinnSammy S Perkins Joni RennhackEliza Morgan ReockThomas G Rolfson David SattlerSterling SavageCameron Self Jay SonnerZachary A SpringDan St. Jean Kristen R SteeleJennifer L. ThomasDr. Fred Watts Blake Williams 15