Estimating Economic Loss from Flooding: A Study of Porter County, Indiana Samantha Cornwell Valparaiso University March 2, 2011

My Study Hurricane Ike and its effect on Porter County Defining Porter County as an adequate study region Why did Porter County have severe flooding? What is lost during a flood?

My Study Define economic loss Use HAZUS-MH to create a case study Determine pros and cons for using the software for a case study Next steps 3

4 Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike strikes Galveston, TX, on September 13, Hurricane Ike –Category 4 Storm –Responsible for 112 deaths, 23 still missing in US –Estimated $29.6 billion in damages on coast and inland

Hurricane Ike Repercussions September 23, 2008: –3 IN Counties were under State of Emergency Lake, Porter, and LaPorte –Flash floods from heavy storms cause 2 deaths in Chesterton –Other communities heavily hit (thousands homeless, injured, etc.)

How was Hurricane Ike different? Path different Previous storms raised river and stream levels –Hurricane Gustav –Hurricane Hanna

Rainfall map created by David Roth, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Text

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14 The Study Region Porter County, IN FIPS:

15 Porter County in relation to IN

Porter County Profile Population of approximately (2009) 163,598 (2.55% of total) Population under %, 24.7% Population over %, 12.9% Population with a disability - 21,490 (2.03% of total) 66,588 housing units (2.37% of total) Poverty level - 8.7%, 12.9%

Porter County is an average county in Indiana, and it is an adequate study region for this project.

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28 Figuring out the Flood

Why was there a flash flood? Southern Lake Michigan counties relatively flat Lack of levees and dams in place Lack of natural drainage systems Already high stream and river levels Intense, heavy rains for a several-day period

Flooding Issues Damaged buildings, homes, property Inaccessible streets for emergencies Lifelines damaged Casualties and injuries (indirect or direct) Waste and clean-up

How do Emergency Managers handle Flash Floods? Quick response Save people, then property –Higher ground –Shelters Block off roads and lifelines –Greater than 6 in. of moving water –“Turn around, Don’t drown!” campaign –Law enforcement barriers Emergency communication and power lines Prevent major economic loss Food and water

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Economic Loss: A Case Study 33

34 What is Economic Loss? A quantifiable dollar or unit amount that represents an estimate of property damage that has or will affect the economy of local, national, or international boundaries.

How to Determine Loss from Flooding Short-term/immediate losses –Housing/buildings with devastation –Roads –Lifelines Long-term losses –Waste –Housing/buildings with minor damage –Damaged property Calculations are NOT a reflection of reality, only approximations

36 Example Case Study HAZUS-MH –FEMA-based Hazard Study software ArcGIS –Geographic Information System software Charleston, SC –Definable study region –Affected by multiple hazards –Inland river flooding (100, 500-year event for specific area)

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31 Results from Case Study Direct economic loss –Annual gross sales, business inventory, restoration time, rental or income lost Indirect economic loss –Annual Income (mil), number of employees, synthetic economy type, percentage of rebuilding, unemployment rate, outside aid, interest rate –Indirect loss is nearly always greater than direct economic loss

38 What Did and Did Not Work Able to define topography for Porter County Unable to delineate the floodplain Could only create 50, 100, 500-year events; need to create a random event based on flash flood conditions Able to see damage results for population density in Census Tract study

39 Next Steps Determine flood levels throughout Porter County during the event to obtain more accurate picture Determine losses by comparing economic data before and after September 2008 Create maps to show flash flood data for a series of days Make a connection between estimations and real-life data, Porter County and other regions

Conclusions Hurricane aftermath affects counties in the storm’s path, especially with flooding. Porter County is a good study region. Flash flooding is a serious problem in low- lying Midwestern counties. HAZUS-MH is a tool worth improving. –Eventually able to make random flood events to simulate flash floods 37

40 Thank You! Prof. Bharath Ganesh Babu Kevin Mickey, POLIS Rusta Ault Michael Siano Sharon Cornwell Dr. Robert Cornwell Sam Ryan Sara Harrison Joan Bukovic Will Milhans Adam Cooper Vince Leidig