Managing Risk The Science and Art of IT Risk Assessment for Project Managers Presented at the FCW Events Government PM Summit November 2004 Michael Lisagor Celerity Works Copyright 2006 Celerity Works

Helping executives accelerate government business growth 2 Why Assess Risk? Anticipate problems Increase probability of project success Keep your stakeholders happy! Sleep well at night! Avoid (but be prepared for) Surprises!

Helping executives accelerate government business growth 3 Risk Assessment Required at the beginning of every project Prepare a list of all possible issues to include: –Business (cost and contract) –Technical –Schedule –Resource availability –Programmatic Product = several “what-if” scenarios

Helping executives accelerate government business growth 4 Risk Assessment Estimate the probability and the potential impact for each scenario. Then, identify one or more mitigation measures for each identified risk for the higher probability risks. Example: –Risk - two new required staff not recruited in time to support the project –Mitigation - identify two internal back-up resources

Helping executives accelerate government business growth 5 Sample Risk Decision Matrix High Medium Low Low Medium High Probability of Failure Adverse Consequence

Helping executives accelerate government business growth 6 Risk Decision Record

Helping executives accelerate government business growth 7 Detect Potential Pitfalls Early Not involving all key project stakeholders Not identifying, understanding or involving the real customer Vague or changing project objectives or requirements Poorly defined deliverables Vague or nonexistent team role and responsibility definitions Incomplete, inaccurate or unrealistic schedules and resource needs Unclear task definitions Poorly defined project assumptions Changing project scope Not documenting key information and decisions