Pandemic Influenza: What Is It and Why Should We Care? Dr. Judith A. Monroe, MD State Health Commissioner
What is Influenza? Viral respiratory illness that occurs usually during the winter months Spread by droplets from coughing or sneezing, then touching eyes, nose or mouth Symptoms –fever, chills, cough, sore throat, muscle aches –begin about 1-4 days after exposure May lead to pneumonia or respiratory distress –elderly –young –weakened immune systems
Influenza Viruses Type A –Infects humans and animals (such as birds and pigs) –Capable of major genetic changes resulting in new virus subtypes –Most severe illness Type B –Infects only humans –Less severe illness –Minor genetic changes
What is a Pandemic? Pandemic = worldwide epidemic Occurs randomly, but usually decades apart Most or all of the world’s population lack preexisting immunity to pandemic virus Spread of infection and severity of illness would likely be much greater than during the annual influenza season Unlike typical influenza every winter, pandemic influenza is not seasonal
Recipe for a Pandemic Starts with a new virus subtype –H5N1 avian (bird) flu virus in Europe, Asia, Africa Causes severe infection –Infection is severe and can be fatal Efficiently transmits from human to human –Not yet observed
Impact of Pandemic Influenza Spreads rapidly throughout the world High morbidity Excess mortality Significant burden on medical system Social and economic disruption
Pandemic 1918 “Spanish Flu” first and worst in twentieth century (H1N1) US deaths: 500,000 Worldwide deaths: –40 million from the flu –8.5 million from WWI
Other Pandemics Asian Flu (H2N2) –US deaths: 60,000 –Global deaths: 1 million Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) –US deaths: 40,000 –Some immunity from All three pandemics had a huge social and economic impact
Current Situation: H5N1 Reservoir in water birds (ducks, geese, swans) Highly lethal in poultry –~ 100% death rate within 48 hours December 23, 2003—February 27, 2006 –169 confirmed human cases, 91 deaths –54% death rate among known cases –virtually all cases related to contact with infected poultry –suspected but not proven human-to-human transmission
Contact With Poultry In Eurasia Farming practices much different than in U.S. –Poultry housed in same areas as humans –Allowed to roam freely, exposure to infected wild birds Consumption of sick, dead birds Ill birds marketed in crowded marketplaces and sold/transported, often illegally H5N1 not yet found in U.S. –Federal/state agencies testing wild birds for H5N1 –Poultry industry testing every lot of poultry for slaughter
Impact Estimates for U.S. Pandemic Deaths thousand % Hospitalizations thousand % Outpatient care18-42 million 6-15% Total infected million 15-35%
Medical Management Vaccine – will require 6-8 months to develop against a pandemic strain Antivirals – some may be effective against a pandemic strain but supply likely limited
Trigger The trigger to enact preparedness plans is sustained human-to-human transmission anywhere in the world
Challenges Widespread: pandemic will likely occur everywhere almost simultaneously Long-term: successive waves may last a year or more Essential services will have to be maintained with as much as 1/3 of the workforce out sick at any one time
Take Home Message Local response will be critical: not much state or federal support available Need to partner and plan NOW Purpose of today’s summit