Avian Flu Pandemic

November 20, 2006 An outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the Avian Flu has occurred among chickens on a poultry farm in Thailand. Authorities speculate that if the virus begins to spread from human to human, it could claim approximately 1.7 million people in the first year, as vaccine is slowly produced. In response, authorities kill approximately 1.5 million chickens to remove the source of the virus.

SITUATION REPORT: December 15, 2006 Transmission –The virus is contained to bird-to-bird transmission Geography: –The virus remains within Thailand’s borders Magnitude –No human infections have been reported

January 3, 2007 An Avian flu outbreak in a small Chinese village results in five confirmed deaths and the admission of 20 people to a local hospital with acute infections. Scientists state that the virus could cross species and while it appears that those infected contracted the virus from direct contact with chickens, one cannot rule out the possibility of person-to-person infection.

SITUATION REPORT: January 15, 2007 Transmission –The virus has mutated and crossed species, allowing it to spread via bird-to-human contact Geography: –The virus has spread at a minimum to China and it thought to have spread outwards in other directions as well Magnitude –There have been 25 human deaths

February 10, 2007 After several isolated outbreaks of the Avian Flu in Indonesia and Cambodia, the WHO and UN declare a “Pandemic Alert” stating that with current global transportation patterns, any outbreak of the flu among humans will be on all continents within three weeks. The Director for WHO's Western Pacific region, said the U.N. agency was ready to open its stockpile of oseltamivir, an antiviral drug, to help avert a global pandemic of the disease.

SITUATION REPORT: February 15, 2007 Transmission –It is thought, though not confirmed, that transmission via human-to-human contact is occurring Geography: –The virus is spreading throughout southeast Asia and parts of China Magnitude –There have been a reported 500 human deaths, though additional unreported instances are likely

February 20, 2007 Further outbreaks occur in Sri Lanka and the Philippines, heightening fears that the flu is spreading out in all directions from Southeast Asia. March 2, 2007 There have been over 2,000 infected individuals reported in China, where doctors have confirmed that the virus is being spread through human-to- human contact. March 10, 2007 Efforts to control the spread of the virus have clearly been futile, as the situation is now dire and uncontrollable in China and Southeast Asia.

SITUATION REPORT: March 15, 2007 Transmission –The virus is spreading via human-to-human contact Geography: –The affected areas have increased to all of southeast and central Asia, and is rapidly approaching northeast Asia Magnitude –There have been a reported 4,000 human deaths with many thousand infected cases

April 8, 2007 A poultry worker in Japan has been diagnosed with a human infection of the H5N1 strain of bird flu. Doctors determine that the symptoms are associated with the same flu strain as among the chickens with which he worked. April 9, 2007 A Japanese tourist in Honolulu is admitted to the Kuakini Medical Center in Honolulu. Tests show his infection with the H5N1 strain of the flu. April 10, 2007 A 12 year old girl with serious underlying medical conditions is admitted to a hospital in Seoul with respiratory symptoms. Initial laboratory tests indicate she has been infected with the H5N1 strain of bird flu.

April 11, 2007 The parents and three siblings of the infected girl are all admitted to the hospital with identical symptoms. All patients appear immune to the antiviral medications amantadine and rimantadine, two of the most commonly used medications for the Avian flu. A Swiss-based pharmaceutical company announces it will donate 3 million treatment courses of Tamiflu to a WHO-managed stockpile, but the first million courses will not be ready until later this year and the remaining 2 million will not be ready until 2008.

SITUATION REPORT: April 15, 2007 Transmission –Human to human passage has now been confirmed Geography: –The affected areas beyond the epicenter in Thailand are extending outward from Bangkok to the Persian Gulf westward and Eastward to the China Sea Magnitude –Deaths in the most affected areas are in the tens of thousands and cases of flu-caused illness are estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands. –Control, containment and relief measures are failing and the scope of the problem is beginning to overwhelm the medical capacity of the countries hit hardest. –Panic is setting in throughout multiple areas; public order and confidence are suffering dramatically both in the areas most affected and neighboring population centers as well.

April 16, 2007 The National Security leaders of all three nations are asking for an actionable response plan from their respective defense officials in consultation with their civilian counterparts to define the primary and support roles their militaries should play, including any collaborative efforts among the three by 1800 today.