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INITIAL CONDITION: 21 st May 2015 Extended range prediction during 2015 season Extended range prediction during 2015 season

Real-time forecast based on 21 st May 2015 initial condition  This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382) (each 11 members).

Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)

Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)

Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)

Extended EOF analysis is carried out similar to Wheeler and Hendon 2004 using standardized rainfall anomalies up to lag -15 days, averaged between 60-95E for the latitudes -12 to 30. The rainfall anomalies for the lag days are appended side by side to create the extended data matrix. The EOF analysis is carried out using IMD-TRMM merged data from The real time data for 2013 is projected onto the EOFs created from the 14 years of past data. The amplitude of EOF1 and EOF2 (PC1 and PC2 ) are plotted in a PC1/PC2 phase space similar to Wheeler Hendon 2004 to get an idea of the evolution of ISO and its strength. Computation of MISO (Ref: Suhas et al. 2012, Sahai et al. 2013) Phase1: Peninsular India; Phase2: Central India; Phase3: Central India; Phase4: North India Phase5: Foothills Phase6: South Indian Ocean; Phase7: Indian Ocean; Phase8: Southern tip

MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days

 Onset of Monsoon over Kerala is likely to take place around 31 st May 2015 as forecasted earlier.  However, the rainfall activity will be mainly confined to North- East, west coast and southern peninsula for the next 10 days after onset.  Large-scale MISO and rainfall propagation map also indicate the north-ward propagation of rainfall from southern ocean to peninsula.  MJO associated suppressed convection is expected to move eastward to the maritime continent by 6 th June and around the same time enhanced convection is being established over western Indian ocean. Key points from the present forecast