Traditional Actuarial Roles – Putting It All Together in an ERM (and EOM) Framework CAS Spring Meeting June 18, 2007 John Kollar, Russ Bingham, Hartford Financial Services Gene Connell, Erie Insurance

CAS Centennial Goal (Refreshed) Advance their expertise in –pricing –reserving –capital modeling Leverage their skills in risk analysis Become recognized as experts in the evaluation of enterprise risk

Are you part of the “Big Picture?” or Are you “silo bound?”

How do you Estimate reserves Model risk & capital Make rates Without seeing the “big picture?”

(New?) ERM Reserving Questions Risk allocation?

(New?) ERM Reserving Questions Risk allocation? Reinsurance?

(New?) ERM Reserving Questions Risk allocation? Reinsurance? Ratemaking assumptions?

(New?) ERM Reserving Questions Risk allocation? Reinsurance? Ratemaking assumptions? Marketing program?

(New?) ERM Reserving Questions Risk allocation? Reinsurance? Ratemaking assumptions? Marketing program? Underwriting guidelines?

(New?) ERM Reserving Questions Risk allocation? Reinsurance? Ratemaking assumptions? Marketing program? Underwriting guidelines? Predictive modeling?

(New?) ERM Reserving Questions Risk allocation? Reinsurance? Ratemaking assumptions? Marketing program? Underwriting guidelines? Predictive modeling? Underwriting cycle position?

Loss Reserve (Unpaid Claim) Estimates New Approaches –Stochastic methods –Bayesian estimates –Benchmarking –Confidence intervals Fair Value Accounting –Discounted reserves –Market Value Margin –Convergence of FASB to IASB

(New?) ERM Capital Modeling Questions Loss reserve adequacy?

(New?) ERM Capital Modeling Questions Loss reserve adequacy? Risk allocation? Reinsurance? Ratemaking assumptions? Marketing program? Underwriting guidelines? Predictive modeling? Underwriting cycle position?

Aggregate Loss Distribution & Implied Capital Value at Risk TVaRTVaR

Risk Measurement & (Cost of) Capital Allocation by Line, etc.

Optimize Mix of Capital and Reinsurance Relative Costs Net Cost of Reinsurance Cost of Capital Investment Income Income Tax Deduction

(New?) ERM Ratemaking Questions Capital allocation?

(New?) ERM Ratemaking Questions Capital allocation? Cost of capital?

(New?) ERM Ratemaking Questions Capital allocation? Cost of capital? Reinsurance? Loss reserve adequacy? Marketing program? Underwriting guidelines? Underwriting cycle position? Predictive modeling?

Underwriting Cycle Position Pricing Risk Competitors’ actions Changes in terms and conditions –Coverage provisions –Exposure measurement –Limits –Deductibles –Prices Policyholder selection

Confidence Interval Around the Target Combined Ratio

Marketing/Underwriting Strategy Reflect Risk in Planning Change

Predictive Modeling Use of other information (beyond rating variables) to more accurately rate a policy –Increased profits –Reduced risk –Lower capital Inability to select better policies and compete with other insurers results in adverse selection –Losses or reduced profits –Increased downside risk –Higher capital

Common ERM Issues (Questions) Loss reserve adequacy Capital adequacy and cost Risk/capital allocation Reinsurance Ratemaking assumptions Marketing program Underwriting guidelines Predictive modeling Underwriting cycle

“Standard” ERM Issues Communication –Clear & complete Responsibility/authority –Objectives & resources Data Quality –Accuracy, credibility, variability Quantification –Model building & parameterization

Robust Analysis of an Enterprise’s Risks (ERM) is Essential to Sound: Ratemaking Loss Reserving Capital Modeling

What is ERM?

ERM is the “Big Picture”

Are You Part of the “Big Picture?” or Do You Want to be Part of the “Big Picture?”