Answers to Practice Exam #3 Exam May 7 4:00-5:45PM since BE101 has 6:00PM class C-4 due May 9 Set 9 due May 9

1.PERT ACTESEF A09 B010 C914 D912 E: MAX(10,14)=1420 F: MAX(12,20)=2024=E(x) G1417

ANSWER T0 (a)=MAX EF=24 ACTLFLS A: MIN(9,17)=90 B:144 C: MIN(14,21)=149 D2017 E2014 F2420 G2421

ANSWER(b):A-C-E-F ACTSLACK=LF-EFCRIT PATH? A:9-9=0Y B:14-10=4 C:14-14=0Y D20-12=8 E20-20=0Y F24-24=0Y G24-17=7

1C: CRITICAL PATH VARIANCE= SUM OF VARIANCES ON CP= VARIANCES OF A,C,E,F = =5.2 =5.2 STANDARD DEVIATION = SQUARE ROOT OF 5.2 = 2.28

NORMAL TABLE Z=(27-24)/2.28 = 1.32 ROW 1.3 COL 0.02 =.02 CUMULATIVE PROB = =.9066 FROM TAYLOR, P 738

2. SHORTEST ROUTE A-B10 A-D3 A-C2=MIN

A-C ADDED A-B 10 A-D 3=MIN C-D2+3=5 C-F2+8=10

A-D ADDED A-B 10 C-F 10 D-B3+6 = 9 D-E3+2 = 5=MIN D-F3+9=12

D-E ADDED A-B10 D-B9 C-F10 D-F12 E-F5+3=8=MIN

E-F ADDED A-B10 D-B9=MIN

EXAM FORMAT A-D-B9 A-C2 A-D3 A-D-E5 A-D-E-F8

3. BAYES RULE P(PROFIT)=.52 P(S|PROFIT)=.85 P(S|NOT PROFIT) =.25 S= SUCCESSFUL P(UNPROFITABLE)=1-P(PROFIT)= 1-.52=.48

P(PROFIT|S).85*.52 =.79.85* *.48