CAREER PEAKS IN THE NETHERLANDS FOR LABOUR MARKET ENTRY COHORTS FROM THE 1950s 1960s, 1970s Testing Goldthorpe’s assumption of occupational maturity around age 35

MAARTEN WOLBERS RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN RUUD LUIJKX TILBURG UNIVERSITY WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN RC 28 YALE UNIVERSITY NEW HAVEN AUGUST 3-6, 2009

FOUR RC28 GENERATIONS (GANZEBOOM, TREIMAN & ULTEE 1989) FIRST LIPSETTWO-MOMENT DATA PERCENTAGES SECONDDUNCANTHREE-MOMENT DATA PATH MODELS THIRDHAUSER-FOUR-MOMENT DATA GOLDTHORPELOG-LINEAR MODELS FOURTHMAYER-FULL JOB HISTORIES BLOSSFELDEVENT MODELS THIS PAPER IS A FOURTH GENERATION PAPER

THE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GENERATIONS : LATER GENERATIONS SAY OF EARLIER ONES THAT THEIR QUESTIONS POSE THE ISSUE POORLY (DUNCAN), ARE NOT DETAILED ENOUGH (HAUSER), NOT SPECIFIED PROPERLY (BLOSSFELD) THE FOURTH GENERATION UNTIL NOW BYPASSED THE QUESTION OF CAREER PEAKS

PRIME DUTCH FOURTH GENERATION STUDY PAUL DE GRAAF 1992 RETROSPECTIVE JOB HISTORIES FOR 427 MEN COLLECTED IN 1982 AVERAGE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS FOR THREE COHORTS AFTER THE NUMBER OF YEARS SINCE LABOUR MARKET ENTRY STATUS RISES DURING A LIFETIME AND IS HIGHER FOR LATER COHORTS

UNDERUSE OF JOB HISTORY DATA FIGURES LIKE THIS BYPASS THE IDEA THAT AN INDIVIDUAL’S CAREER PEAKS

YET THE QUESTION OF THEAGE AT WHICH AN INDIVIDUAL’S CAREER PEAKS HAS SOME PERTINENCE ACCORDING TO GOLDTHORPE (1981: 51-52) THE CAREERS OF MOST INDIVIDUALS HAVE MATURED AROUND AGE 35 THE OCCUPATIONAL MATURITY ASSUMPTION ALLOWS FOR ANSWERING QUESTIONS ABOUT TRENDS WITH DATA FROM ONE SURVEY ONLY

THE QUESTION : HAS THE AGE AT WHICH A PERSON’S CAREER PEAKS SHIFTED UP OR DOWN WITH EACH NEW LABOUR MARKET ENTRY COHORT ? IS A SECOND GENERATION QUESTION

IT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY THE FOURTH GENERATION QUESTION : AFTER OVERVIEWING A PERSON’S JOB HISTORY AND DETERMINING THIS PERSON’S PEAK, ARE THE ODDS FOR THIS PERSON TO HAVE MOVED IN A CERTAIN PERIOD FROM NON-PEAK TO PEAK HIGHER, THE SAME, OR LOWER IF THIS PERSON BELONGS TO A LATER LABOUR MARKET ENTRY COHORT ?

THE GOLDTHORPE HYPOTHESIS : THE EFFECTS OF FACTORS LIKE FATHER’S OCCUPATIONAL STATUS, EDUCATION, STATUS FIRST OCCUPATION AND NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ON THE AGE AT WHICH MEN REACH THEIR PEAK HAVE MORE OR LESS RUN OUT BEFORE AGE 35

THIS PAPER’S ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS : THE EFFECTS OF THE FACTORS AGE (MONTHS ON THE LABOUR MARKET) EDUCATION AND NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ON MOVING DURING SOME FIXED PERIOD FROM NON-PEAK TO PEAK IMPLY HIGHER ODDS OF PEAKING AFTER AGE 35

MORE IF THIS PAPER’S HYPOTHESES : PERSONS DURING A FIXED PERIOD ARE MORE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO THEIR PEAK IF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THAT PERIOD WAS LOWER IF THAT PERSON IS OLDER (HAS BEEN LONGER ON THE LABOUR MARKET) IF THAT PERSON HAS MORE EDUCATION IF THAT PERSON’S FATHER HAD A HIGHER STATUS IF THAT PERSON’S FIRST JOB HAD A HIGHER STATUS

THIS PAPER’S DATA SERIES OF FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION WITH NEW SAMPLES FOR TO BE ADDED 2009 PLUS HIN 2005 RETROSPECTIVE JOB HISTORIES FOR MEN AND WOMEN AGED 18-70

HERE SELECTED : ALL MEN AT LEAST AGED 45 AT TIME OF INTERVIEW WOMEN DESERVE SEPARATE TREATMENT IT WOULD BE UNWISE AND UNNECESSARY TO SELECT ONLY MEN WHO HAVE DEFINITIVELY RETIRED FROM THE LABOUR MARKET

THE CLASSICAL GRAPH FOR THE PRESENT DUTCH DATA SET : FOR LATER COHORTS, AVERAGE ENTRY OCCUPATIONAL STATUS, MEASURED AS ISEI RANGING FROM 10 TO 90, RISES BUT PEAKS EARLIER WITH INCREASING NUMBER OF MONTHS ON THE LABOUR MARKET

ANOTHER CLASSICAL GRAPH AVERAGE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS INCREASES MOST FOR MEN WITH SECONDARY EDUCATION, AND LEAST FOR MEN WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION

DETERMINE FOR EACH MAN HIS CAREER PEAK NOW MAKE A MEN-MONTHS FILE DETERMINE WHETHER A MAN AT THE BEGINNING OF A MONTH IS AT THE PEAK OF HIS CAREER IF YES, DELETE THESE CASES IF NO, DETERMINE WHETHER THIS MAN AT THE END OF A MONTH IS AT HIS PEAK TAKE AGE OF THE MAN OR THE NUMBER OF MONTHS SINCE LABOUR MARKET ENTRY AS A TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATE

MEAN PEAK AGE FOR EACH COHORT : 1950s COHORT s COHORT s COHORT32.5

PERTINENT GRAPH 50% OF THE 1950s COHORT MEN IS AT THEIR PEAK WITHIN 90 MONTHS 50% OF THE 1960s COHORT MEN IS AT THEIR PEAK WITHIN 60 MONTHS 50% OF THE 1970s COHORT MEN IS AT THEIR PEAK WITHIN 30 MONTHS

OF THE MEN IN THE 1970s COHORT, AFTER 300 MONTHS ABOUT 40% PERCENT IS NOT AT THEIR PEAK THIS MEANS THAT QUESTIONS ON MAKING THE PEAK SHOULD BE COMPLEMENTED WITH QUESTIONS ON SLIDING FROM THE PEAK GOLDTHORPE’S MATURATION NOTION : MATURATION NOT ONLY AS STAYING AT A PEAK BUT ALSO AS BELOW EARLY PEAK STABILIZATION ?

MEAK PEAK AGE FOR SIX LEVELS OF EDUCATION : PRIMARY 34.5 LOWER SECUNDARY33.9 INTERMEDIATE SECUNDARY33.8 HIGHER SECUNDARY32.6 LOWER TERTIARY34.7 HIGHER TERTIARY34.3

ANOTHER PERTINENT GRAPH OF MEN WITH PR + LS EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 50 MONTHS OF MEN WITH IS + HS EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 50 MONTHS OF MEN WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 100 MONTHS

SECOND GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LINEAR REGRESSION OF THE AGE AT WHICH A CAREER PEAKS ON VARIOUS FACTORS N = 1163 SIGNCOEFSE CONST** FOCCns EDU2ns EDU3ns EDU4ns EDU5ns EDU6ns FISTOCCns COHORT2ns COHORT3**

ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT PARAMETER THAT ONE IS FOR COHORT3 IF THE STATUS OF THE FIRST JOB IS DROPPED AND IF THE STATUS OF THE FIRST JOB AND THE DUMMIES FOR EDUCATION ARE DROPPED STILL ONLY COHORT3 IS SIGNIFICANT

FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING AGE N = 208,546, ONE-LEVEL MODEL SIGNCOEFSE CONS** FOCCns EDU2ns EDU3 ns EDU4ns EDU5ns EDU6ns FISTOCCns AGE** AGE SQUAREDns COHORT2** COHORT3** SIGNIFICANT PARAMETERS FOR AGE AND FOR THE TWO COHORTS

FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING AGE N = 208,546, ONE-LEVEL MODEL SIGNCOEFSE CONS** FOCCns EDU2ns EDU3 ns EDU4ns EDU5ns EDU6* FISTOCCns AGE** AGE SQUAREDns UNEMPRATE** NEXT TO SIGNIFICANT PARAMETERS FOR AGE AND FOR HIGHEST EDUCATION SIGNIFICANT PARAMETER FOR TIME-DEPENDENT NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING MONTHS SINCE ENTERING THE LABOUR MARKET N = 208,546, ONE-LEVEL MODEL SIGNCOEFSE CONS** FOCCns EDU2ns EDU3 ** EDU4** EDU5** EDU6** FISTOCCns MONTHSns M SQUARED** 6.24e e-06 UNEMPRATEns MORE EDUCATION PARAMETERS ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NOW IS INSIGNIFICANT EFFECTS HAVE THE PREDICTED SIGN

FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING MONTHS SINCE ENTERING THE LABOUR MARKET N = 208,546, TWO-LEVEL MODEL SIGNCOEFSE CONS** FOCC** EDU2ns EDU3 ** EDU4** EDU5** EDU6** FISTOCCns MONTHS** M SQUAREDns 4.68e e-06 UNEMPRATE** AFTER CORRECTION FOR GROUPING OF MONTHS WITHIN PERSONS (WITH STATA), YET MORE SIGNIFICANT PARAMETERS INCLUDING FATHER’S OCCUPATIONAL STATUS AND NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

RUNNING MODELS HAS NOT PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH TO SIMULATE THEM FOR THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN VARIOUS CONDITIONS ON THE PERCENT OF PERSONS WHO PEAK BEFORE AGE 35 INTERACTION TERMS SHOULD BE INCLUDED FIRST

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