Impact Of Surface State Analysis On Estimates Of Long Term Variability Of A Wind Resource Dr. Jim McCaa

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003 Nick Keener, CCM Director, Meteorology 2009 Summer AMS Community Meeting Aug.

Advertisements

Task: (ECSK06) Regional downscaling Regional modelling with HadGEM3-RA driven by HadGEM2-AO projections National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR)/KMA.

Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

Class project presentation Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529 Causes for Persistence in Inter Annual Variability of 3 Layer Soil Moisture Estimates in the Colorado River.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Seethu Babu Marketa McGuire Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

CPC’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook & Future Plans April 20, 2010 Brad Pugh, CPC.

Ag. & Biological Engineering

Climate Forecasting Unit Prediction of climate extreme events at seasonal and decadal time scale Aida Pintó Biescas.

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections for West Africa Andrew Hartley, Met Office: PARCC national workshop on climate information and species.

Figure 1: Schematic representation of the VIC model. 2. Model description Hydrologic model The VIC macroscale hydrologic model [Liang et al., 1994] solves.

The Eta Regional Climate Model: Model Development and Its Sensitivity in NAMAP Experiments to Gulf of California Sea Surface Temperature Treatment Rongqian.

OCEAN INTERACTIONS WITH THE ATMOSPHERE Niki Henzel & Ron Gabbay.

Forecasting Streamflow with the UW Hydrometeorological Forecast System Ed Maurer Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington Pacific Northwest.

1 CUTTING-EDGE CLIMATE SCIENCE AND SERVICES Geoff Love.

Seasonal Moisture Flux Variability over North America in NASA/NSIPP’s AMIP Simulation and Atmospheric Reanalysis By Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas and Sumant Nigam.

Regional Climate Simulations of summer precipitation over the United States and Mexico Kingtse Mo, Jae Schemm, Wayne Higgins, and H. K. Kim.

June 16th, 2009 Christian Pagé, CERFACS Laurent Terray, CERFACS - URA 1875 Julien Boé, U California Christophe Cassou, CERFACS - URA 1875 Weather typing.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2006 Matt Huddleston With thanks to: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Ruth McDonald & Met Office Seasonal forecasting team 14 th March.

The Role of Antecedent Soil Moisture on Variability of the North American Monsoon System Chunmei Zhu a, Yun Qian b, Ruby Leung b, David Gochis c, Tereza.

Global Flood and Drought Prediction GEWEX 2005 Meeting, June Role of Modeling in Predictability and Prediction Studies Nathalie Voisin, Dennis P.

Alan F. Hamlet, Nathalie Voisin, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, David W. Pierce Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of.

Part I: Representation of the Effects of Sub- grid Scale Topography and Landuse on the Simulation of Surface Climate and Hydrology Part II: The Effects.

The climate and climate variability of the wind power resource in the Great Lakes region of the United States Sharon Zhong 1 *, Xiuping Li 1, Xindi Bian.

Introduction 1. Climate – Variations in temperature and precipitation are now predictable with a reasonable accuracy with lead times of up to a year (

Printed by Introduction: The nature of surface-atmosphere interactions are affected by the land surface conditions. Lakes (open water.

Understanding hydrologic changes: application of the VIC model Vimal Mishra Assistant Professor Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Gandhinagar

© 2005 Accurate Environmental Forecasting Climate and Hurricane Risk Dr. Dail Rowe Accurate Environmental Forecasting

Retrospective Evaluation of the Performance of Experimental Long-Lead Columbia River Streamflow Forecasts Climate Forecast and Estimated Initial Soil Moisture.

COST 723 WORKSHOP – SOFIA, BULGARIA MAY 2006 USE OF RADIOSONDE DATA FOR VALIDATION OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING SIMULATIONS OVER CYPRUS Panos Hadjinicolaou.

Assessing Global and Regional climate change scenarios for West Africa AIACC Project AF20.

© Crown copyright Met Office Downscaling ability of the HadRM3P model over North America Wilfran Moufouma-Okia and Richard Jones.

Sources of Skill and Error in Long Range Columbia River Streamflow Forecasts: A Comparison of the Role of Hydrologic State Variables and Winter Climate.

John Mejia and K.C. King, Darko Koracin Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 4th NARCCAP Workshop, Boulder, CO, April,

Assessing the Influence of Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change on Snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the.

Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and the Department.

Intercomparison of US Land Surface Hydrologic Cycles from Multi-analyses & Models NOAA 30th Annual Climate Diagnostic & Prediction Workshop, 27 October,

Implementing Probabilistic Climate Outlooks within a Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System Andy Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

Using Satellite Data and Fully Coupled Regional Hydrologic, Ecological and Atmospheric Models to Study Complex Coastal Environmental Processes Funded by.

Complementary Science Questions 1. How are interseasonal, interdecadal, and future projected climate change in the land-atmosphere dynamics of the Colorado.

VERIFICATION OF A DOWNSCALING SEQUENCE APPLIED TO MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTIONS FOR GLOBAL FLOOD PREDICTION Nathalie Voisin, Andy W. Wood and.

EVALUATION OF A GLOBAL PREDICTION SYSTEM: THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN AS A TEST CASE Nathalie Voisin, Andy W. Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Civil and.

SnowSTAR 2002 Transect Reconstruction Using SNTHERM Model July 19, 2006 Xiaogang Shi and Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

Long-lead streamflow forecasts: 2. An approach based on ensemble climate forecasts Andrew W. Wood, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Alan.F. Hamlet University of.

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center Dr. Lee Tryhorn NOAA Climate Literacy Workshop April 2010 NOAA Northeast Regional Climate.

Long-Range Streamflow Forecasting Products and Water Resources Management Applications in the Columbia River Basin Alan F. Hamlet, Andy Wood, Dennis P.

Upper Rio Grande R Basin

Estimating Changes in Flood Risk due to 20th Century Warming and Climate Variability in the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)

Tanya L. Spero1, Megan S. Mallard1, Stephany M

(April, 2001-September, 2002) JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the

Question 1 Given that the globe is warming, why does the DJF outlook favor below-average temperatures in the southeastern U. S.? Climate variability on.

Performance of the VIC land surface model in coupled simulations

Nathalie Voisin, Andy W. Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Multimodel Ensemble Reconstruction of Drought over the Continental U.S

Hydrologic Forecasting

Hydrology and Water Management Applications of GCIP Research

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest Rivers to climate change

Long-Lead Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River Basin for

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System

Long-Range Hydropower Forecasts for the Columbia River, Colorado River, and Sacramento/San Joaquin Systems Alan F. Hamlet, Andrew Wood, Nathalie Voisin.

Results for Basin Averages of Hydrologic Variables

A Multimodel Drought Nowcast and Forecast Approach for the Continental U.S. Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Multimodel Ensemble Reconstruction of Drought over the Continental U.S

Results for Basin Averages of Hydrologic Variables

Presentation transcript:

Impact Of Surface State Analysis On Estimates Of Long Term Variability Of A Wind Resource Dr. Jim McCaa

3TIER Group Established 1999 Offices in North and Latin America Focused on the weather driven renewable energy sector (wind-hydro-solar) Forecasting for over: –2,000 MW wind energy (18 projects) –2,000 MW hydro (6 projects)

Month Ahead Forecasts & Resource Assessment Requires a full understanding of project output and climate variability

Long term forecasting issues Does wind have dependable capacity on seasonal/monthly time scales? What is the probability of several above/below average years in a row? Is production linked to predictable climate indices? Can probabilistic forecasts contribute to dependable capacity?

Global Weather Archive 1948-present High Resolution Terrain, Soil and Vegetation Data Hourly spatial meteorological data Hourly 3-dimensional meteorological data Multi year hourly time series Numerical Weather Simulation Model On-Site Observations Dynamics Statistics INPUTS METHOD PRODUCTS Spatial Maps of Wind Resource Accurate Variability Estimate & Month Ahead Forecast Capability Accurate Dependable Capacity Estimates Resource Related Risk Analysis: R-cubed Time-evolving Moisture Availability

Strengths and Weaknesses of Modeled Record Extension Demonstrated skill at downscaling large scale flows and generating internal thermally-driven circulations Models generally underpredict natural variability Strong dependence on lower and lateral boundary conditions

Limitations of reanalysis dataset Useful for capturing large-scale flow in the upper atmosphere Not suitable for use at a single point Can not represent small-scale/thermally driven flow Too coarse for proper surface initialization

Case study: Northern California Long-term met tower near Altamont Flow dominated by thermal circulation driven by heating in the San Joaquin Valley Pathological case for reanalysis forcing

Reanalysis points in model domain

Altamont, California Verification

Interannual Variability by Season Summer (JJA) Mean Winds Winter (DJF) Mean Winds

Introduction of better surface initialization Re-initialize surface moisture every 3 days from an 1/8 degree hydrology model Hydrology simulation provided by Ed Maurer of the University of Washington Hydrology model was driven by surface observations from 1950 to 2000 Only addresses one part of the surface initialization problem

VIC hydrology model The Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is a macroscale hydrologic model that solves full water and energy balances, originally developed by Xu Liang at the University of Washington.

Old and new moisture availability (red is 0.1, blue is 0.5) Reanalysis 6/1/1993 VIC 6/1/1993

Improved Altamont Verification

Improved Interannual Variability Summer (JJA) Mean Winds Winter (DJF) Mean Winds

10 Years of above average wind 30 Years of below average or average wind Large variability in capacity factor from month to month 75% 17%

PDO Negative PDO Positive

El Nino Conditions: Annual Capacity Factor decreases from 43% to 39% Winter Wind Every month forecast below average Summer Wind Near Average

Summary NCEP/NCAR reanalysis can be used (when appropriately downscaled!) to reconstruct synoptically-driven flow Mesoscale model representation of thermally- driven circulations is reasonable, but may show insufficient interannual variability Improvements to mesoscale model surface initialization translate to better reconstructed winds

3TIER Environmental Forecast Group (206)

Seven Mile Hill Verification A similar story…