The new multiple-source system for Italian Structural Business Statistics based on administrative and survey data Orietta Luzi, Ugo Guarnera, Paolo Righi Italian National Statistical Institute (Istat) Q2014 Conference - Vienna, 3-5 June, 2014

Outline - The new statistical information system «frame SBS» - The sources of the «frame SBS» - The estimation strategy - Concluding remarks and future work The new system for estimating structural economic statistics on enterprises based on the integrated use of survey data and administrative data – Istat, Rome, 11 January 2013

Statistical information system for estimating structural economic variables on business accounts (Turnover, Purchases of goods and Services, Production Value, Value Added, … ) for small and medium enterprises based on the primary use of integrated administrative/fiscal data, “complemented” with survey data Until now, SBS for enterprises with less than 100 employees (~4.4 mln units in 2011) have been estimated based on a direct sample survey (~100,000 units) - administrative data were used as auxiliary information. The «frame SBS»: a multiple-source system for Italian Structural Business Statistics based on administrative and survey data The new system for estimating structural economic statistics on enterprises based on the integrated use of survey data and administrative data – Istat, Rome, 11 January 2013

 Financial Statements (FS) of corporate enterprises liable to fill in the financial statement (about enterprises each year)  The Sector Studies survey (SS), which is a Fiscal Authority survey that includes each year about 3.5 mln enterprises with a turnover lower than 7.5 mln and greater than 30,000 euros belonging to many economic activity sectors  The Tax Return Data (Unico model), based on a unified model of tax declarations by legal form, and IRAP, the Italian regional tax on productive activities  The Business Register (BR). Used as population list, auxiliary source of information  The Social Security Data (SSD), which includes firm level data and employee data on wages and labor cost. Auxiliary source of information The sources of the «frame SBS» The new system for estimating structural economic statistics on enterprises based on the integrated use of survey data and administrative data – Istat, Rome, 11 January 2013

The sources of the «frame SBS»

 Only the survey respondents provide information (Y j S ) on all the target variables Y j * (j=1,..p), based on the SBS Regulation definitions  Information on target variables Y j *, say Y j i, may be available in one or more source i, on either disjoined or overlapping sub-populations Two main steps for each source i and variable j: 1)harmonization of the Y j i definition with the one described by the SBS Regulation for the corresponding Y j * 2)quality evaluation of harmonized Y j i based on the comparison with the corresponding Y j S  Only some harmonized Y j i are considered reliable enough in terms of reported values (Main economic aggregates). In case of overlap, sources are prioritized  For the other target variables (Components of the main economic aggregates) the only reliable information is that provided by the survey resp. The estimation strategy

Main economic aggregates

Coverage rate of the SME population by source and some main economic aggregates

 Main economic aggregates: model based (predictive) approach  “Mixed” unit-level mass imputation to compensate for not covered units and variables values  Components of the main economic aggregates: design based/model assisted estimation approach  Projection Estimator to obtain consistent domains estimates w.r.t. the main economic aggregates estimates A “hybrid” estimation strategy

Main economic aggregates: Mass imputation Direct use of administrative and fiscal data Choice of methods: variables relations and distributions characteristics Predictive Mean Matching, Nearest Neighbor Donor, two-step logistic + regression models, deterministic imputation) Avoid inconsistencies between estimates at whatever domain levels

Components of the main economic aggregates: the projection estimator (*) «Synthetic imputation» of variable values non observed in the sample based on weighted regression models estimated on the SME survey respondents (~ enterprises) Auxiliary Variables: main economic aggregates, structural information (BR) Consistency Among components and their reference aggregates Between estimates at the planned SBS+SEC estimation levels Approximately unbiased estimates at the level of model estimation domain Trade-off between bias (high detail level) and variance (low sample size) of parameters estimates (*) Kim, J. K. K., Rao, J. N. K. (2011). Combining data from two independent surveys: a model- assisted approach. Biometrika. No.8, pp. 1–16.

6 CVs for some components of main aggregates (year 2011)

Some results: survey-based vs frame-based estimates on SMEs by main economic aggregates, by size class (year 2011)

Overcome some limitations of the current statistical production strategy (costs, burden, accuracy). Expected increase of SBS consistency over time Higher levels of consistency between annual statistics on enterprises and National Accounts, starting from the 2011 Benchmark … and future work Managing unit identification problems over time (splits, fusions,…) Assessing estimates accuracy for the main economic aggregates Improve inferences for some components of the main economic aggregates in specific economic sectors Consistent estimation w.r.t. the frame information in the different domains of statistics on enterprises (R&D, ICT, etc.) Concluding remarks….