Hurricane Ike 0800L 11 Sept 2008 Dan Petersen NOAA Meteorologist

Rainfall from 8 pm Wed Sep 10 until 8 pm Sep

Current Satellite Image Center Hurricane Ike

LARGE HURRICANE IKE SLOWLY HEADED NORTHWESTWARD AT 700 AM CDT Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES KM. AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB INCHES.

Watches and Warnings A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

Rain and Storm Surge COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

Technical Discussion OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR NEUTRAL ALONG THE PATH OF IKE AS IT WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE JUST TO THE NORTH OF A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IKE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. FIXES FROM THE CURRENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST...I.E. 295/8. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT HOURS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO TEXAS. DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THIS WOULD CAUSE IKE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF OUR MOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.