NACLIM CT1/CT3 1 st CT workshop April 2013 Hamburg (DE) Johann Jungclaus

NACLIM structure

WP1.1: Predictability of the North Atl./Arctic ocean surface state & key oceanic quantities MPI-M (30 PM), NERSC (24 PM) Objectives: To assess, in a multi-model approach, the predictability of the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean surface state and of key ocean parameters controlling it To quantify the uncertainty in predictions of the near-future North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean surface state Tools: CMIP5 climate change/dec. pred. simulations

WP1.1: Predictability of the North Atl./Arctic ocean surface state & key oceanic quantities: Deliverables D11.25) Multi-model assessment of the hindcast predictability of NA/Arctic ocean surface state: Assessment on the hindcast predictability of the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state including SST, SSS and Arctic sea ice cover [month 24] D11.36) Quantification of uncertainty in predictions of near-future NA/Arctic ocean surface state: Report on the quantification of the uncertainty in predictions of the near-future North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state including SST, SSS and Arctic sea ice cover [month 36] D11.56) Multi-model assessment of hindcast predictability of key oceanic quantities controlling North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state. Assessment on the hindcast predictability of the key oceanic quantities controlling the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state including SST, SSS and Arctic sea ice cover [month 44]

WP1.2: Predictability of the atmosphere related to the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state UPMC (48 PM), UHAM (48), NERSC (18) Objectives: Identify the sea surface temperature (SST), surface salinity, and sea ice patterns that optimally influence the atmosphere in the North Atlantic/European sector on seasonal to decadal time scales and quantify their climatic impacts. Assess the ability of climate models to reproduce these impacts, identify their potential predictability, and use observations to downscale the model predictions from global to local scales. Quantify the impact of Arctic changes on polar meso-cyclone activity. Tools: THOR Adjoint Assimilation system, observational data sets, NACLIM obs., reanalysis products, atmosphere & climate model simulations

WP1.2: Predictability of the atmosphere related to the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state: Deliverables D12.18) Report on the identification of NA/Arctic ocean surface state changes that most affect atmosphere: i.e. report on the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere, which processes and mechanisms are involved and which observations need to be taken to represent those processes best. [month 18] D12.37) Assessment of the ability of climate models to reproduce response to boundary forcing: i.e. assessment of the ability of climate models used in CMIP5 to reproduce the response in the North Atlantic/European sector to changes in boundary forcing identified in the observations. [month 36] D12.48) Report on the establishment of the climate impacts of surface state forcing: i.e. report on the establishment of the climate impacts of surface state forcing, including sea surface temperature and Arctic sea ice cover [month 44] D12.49) Assessment on the link between weather regimes and Polar low developments in present &future climate: Assessment on the associations between dominant modes of variability (surface and atmospheric) and polar low developments in present climate as well as in future projections. [month 44]

WP1.3: Mechanisms of ocean surface state variability UPMC (48 PM), UHAM (36) Objektives: Characterize the time-space sea surface variability in the Arctic/North Atlantic region. Identify the mechanisms underpinning this variability and link them to indices of variability of the ocean circulation. Provide information on the respective roles of the atmosphere and the ocean in this variability and identify feedback mechanisms between ocean anomalies and the overlaying atmosphere. Tools: THOR Adjoint Assimilation System, observational data sets, NACLIM obs., reanalysis products, ocean & climate model simulations

WP1.3: Mechanisms of ocean surface state variability: Deliverables D13.19) Description of the Arctic/North Atlantic ocean surface variability over the last decades: The report will describe the most important patterns of ocean surface (sea ice, SST) variability and regional indices of this variability as retrieved from observations and state-of-the-art models. The description will include assessment of model skills against independent observations. [month 18] D13.38) Report on identification of most relevant ocean mechanisms controlling the S2D variability of the Arctic/North Atlantic ocean surface state. The report will provide and discuss the statistical relationships between the surface state variability and the ocean variability based on a variety of model simulations and reanalyses and on available observations [month 36] D13.50) Report on characterization of back-interaction of atmosphere on Arctic/North Atlantic ocean surface state. The report will provide a description of the key modes of atmospheric variability which influence the surface state changes and an evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. [month 44]

CT1/CT3 workshop Each WP: Describe state of work/progress Status and suitability of the tools Any changes needed? Cross WP / Cross-CT activities WPs 1.1, 1.2., 1.3, 3.2 overlaps/synergy Need for coordination of joint model experiments? Liaison with observations (CT2): Availability, NACLIM data portal; WP1.2: „joint model-observation data comparison“: UHAM/NERC See deliverables D23XX Liaison with WP4: Information/data exchange Focus on CT1/CT3: Initialization, Focus on Arctic Connections to other projects (e.g. RACE) Plans for joint publications

CT1/CT3 workshop Additions: data policy, select CT1 data manager

CT1/CT3 workshop Additions:

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP ), under grant agreement n NACLIM