Climate change II: impacts Bio 415/615. Questions 1. What are 2 ways plants and animals have been influenced by climate change over the last 50 years?

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Presentation transcript:

Climate change II: impacts Bio 415/615

Questions 1. What are 2 ways plants and animals have been influenced by climate change over the last 50 years? 2. What is phenology, and how does it indicate global warming? 3. How are corals influenced by global warming? 4. Do plant communities respond to more CO2 in the atmosphere? How are such experiments conducted?

Review The world has warmed about 1 C in the past 100 years (compared to 5-7 C in the past 20,000 yrs at mid latitudes) The world will continue to warm rapidly, perhaps by 5 C over the next 100 years What will happen to plant and animal populations over the next few human generations? How to plan for the possibilities in the management of species and communities?

Has recent climate change influenced biodiversity?

Hickling et al (UK) Has warming influenced species distributions?

Will warming influence species distributions?

Iverson & Prasad (USFS) Forest composition change in the Eastern US by 2100 (current is upper left). NY will resemble current Tennessee, Missouri (oak hickory forests).

Sugar maple: gone?!

Black cherry: ‘sparse’?!

Beech: contraction?

Sweetgum: can it move?

Longleaf pine: can it move?

Phenology (IPCC 2007)

Coral bleaching is a stress response in reef-forming corals, related to a loss of their photosynthetic (algal) symbiont. Between , only 3 bleaching events were recorded in the world. Since 1979, there have been dozens of reports. Donner et al. (2007) report that “anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of significant thermal stress events for corals [in the Caribbean] by an order of magnitude.”

Mountain meadow warming Harte and Shaw 1995 Shrubs increase with warming

Arctic warming Walker et al Shrubs increase with warming

Buxton Climate Change Study Est Buxton, England; 370 m a.s.l., 53 20’ N Lat

+ Temp/water interactions 3x3 m plots, 5 replicates Long-term climate manipulations Summer watering (June-Sept) Winter heating (3 °C ) Summer drought (July-Aug)

No progressive change in composition after 13 years in 3x3 m plots Grime, Fridley et al PNAS Major life form groups unchanged Species composition relatively stable

Fine-scale (100 cm 2 ) vegetation and soil surveys x x xx x x x x x 10 cm 20 cm 240 quadrats (8 per 3x3m plot) 3 m 80% microsite variance within plots

13 out of 25 species exhibited microsite responses in controls ( GLM P<0.05 ) Plantago lanceolata Potentilla erecta Deep site specialists Abundance (cover class) Sanguisorba minor Thymus polytrichus Briza media Shallow site specialists Generalized Additive Models (GAM) Fridley et al Global Change Biology Abundance (cover class)

FACE (Free Air CO 2 Enrichment)

What do FACE experiments reveal about enhanced CO2 effects on forests? DeLucia et al Young forest: enhanced growth

Mature forest: CO2 effects? Koerner et al Mature forest: no consistent difference

Will warming facilitate biological invasions? Walther et al. 2002

How do we manage ecosystems if the climate is changing? Corridors? Assisted migration? Manage for local adaptation? Genetic diversity? Keep out invaders? For how long? What about plants and animals that will have no suitable new climates? Focus on processes rather than species?