Thailand Fiscal Projections Suphannada Lowhachai Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) and Sang-Hyop Lee University of Hawaii.

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Presentation transcript:

Thailand Fiscal Projections Suphannada Lowhachai Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) and Sang-Hyop Lee University of Hawaii and East-West Center November 12, 2014 NTA 10, Beijing, PRC

Thailand’s Public Administration Draft Budget Cabine t Budget Approve d Ministri es Local Governm ent Units  Infrastructures  Education  Health  Other Social Services peo ple NESDB Budget Bureau MOF % 25% 20% of GDP

Budget Allocation by Purpose, FY2014 and FY2015 FunctionFiscal YearChange from FY2014 to FY Mil.Baht% % % General Services911, , , Economic Affairs530, , , Community and Social Services 1,083, ,107, , Education518, , , Health252, , , Social Work217, , , Others94, , ,

Public-Private Consumption Shares of Public and Private Consumption (%)  For all ages, on average, private consumption accounted for larger share of total consumption.  However, public sector played significant role in supporting expenditure for younger and older population.  Share of public sector was low and stable during the working ages.

Results: Public-Private Consumption Annual Per-capita Education Expenditure (THB)  Education in Thailand was mainly financed by public resources.  The public share was higher than 80% for almost all education levels except for the elderly group (60+)  It should be noted that public spending on education was highest in primary education level (5-14).  This is due to the fact that in Thailand, this education level is compulsory and fully supported by the government.

Results: Public-Private Consumption Annual Per-capita Health Expenditure (THB)  public-private share of health expenditure was varied with age.  The percentage share of public spending on healthcare was higher in early childhood (0-5) and elderly (60+) groups, almost equal private contribution in children (5-14) and working age (25-59) groups, and less than private spending in teenager group (15-24).  It should be noted that in 2011, the health consumption of population age 60 years and above was highest compare to other age groups

2 targets and 2 constraints scenarios 2 targets scenarios – Capitalist transformation – Social welfare transformation 2 constraints scenarios – No constraint – Size of government & public debt (both)

Capitalist target, no constraints

Capitalist target, constrained

Social welfare target, no constraints

Social welfare target, constrained