The GBS Evaluation: Key Findings and Issues Stephen Lister WB-ODI Seminar London, 18 July 2006

GBS Evaluation: Key Findings and Issues2 Topics 1. Scope of evaluation 2. Principal findings 3. Implications for choice of modality 4. Challenges

London, 18 July 2006GBS Evaluation: Key Findings and Issues3 Scope of evaluation illustrative sample of countries focus on partnership GBS identified by country-level inventories large volume, but recent, uneven distribution of PGBS useful contrasts in penetration PGBS flows

London, 18 July 2006GBS Evaluation: Key Findings and Issues4 Principal findings Overall positive assessment in 5 of 7 countries: Relevant response to problems in aid effectiveness. Efficient, effective and sustainable way of supporting national poverty reduction strategies. Positive systemic effects on capacity by providing discretionary funds to national budget system. Spill-over effects enhance quality of aid as a whole. Initial effects on poverty mainly through expanding public services. Ultimate effects will depend on the quality of the national poverty reduction strategy. Capacity for learning suggests instrument can become more effective over time. Did not find unintended effects or side-effects that would outweigh benefits.

London, 18 July 2006GBS Evaluation: Key Findings and Issues5 Implications for choice of modality Broad relevance of findings / spectrum of instruments Overlap between general and sector budget support Findings are more widely relevant to programme-based approaches which share PGBS design principles. Interactions between aid modalities: GBS effects include: Broad influence on harmonisation and alignment. Increased policy coherence across sectors. GBS flexibility improves expenditure efficiency across all funding sources. General benefit of PFM strengthening. Complementarity between PGBS and other instruments (e.g. on cross-cutting issues, capacity building, corruption). GBS benefits (e.g. on efficiency and t-costs) are diminished when off-budget modalities persist. Need more systematic consideration of aid portfolios at country, donor and sector levels.

London, 18 July 2006GBS Evaluation: Key Findings and Issues6 Challenges Balance between autonomy and intrusion resolving conditionality conundrum More attention to long term predictability Develop genuinely long-term instruments Review design to minimise political risk, e.g. realistic expectations better explanation mechanics of design Be pragmatic, not purist.