A Pregnant Pause Economic Prospects for the Remainder of 2008 Carl R. Tannenbaum Economic Consultant 630-234-7548.

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Presentation transcript:

A Pregnant Pause Economic Prospects for the Remainder of 2008 Carl R. Tannenbaum Economic Consultant

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Let’s Not Forget: Things Haven’t Been That Bad! Quarterly Change in US GDP, Annualized “Potential”

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Expansions: Not Always Smooth Sailing Year over Year Growth in Real GDP Growth recessions punctuated the long expansions of the ’80s and ’90s

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 The Housing Correction Trends in Home Sales Sources: National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Putting the Hammer Down Sources: National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Home Prices Year over Year Change, Case-Shiller Index

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 FICO Scores Weighted Average of FICO Scores for Total Originations

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 ARM Share of new originations

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Past Their Prime Home mortgages 30 or more days past due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Senior Loan Officer Survey: Home Mortgages Net Percentage of Respondents Tightening Credit Source: Federal Reserve Highest on record

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Views on Sub-Prime Not a complete disaster, but some very questionable practices Break in housing prices causes contagion to other mortgage segments A wake-up call for borrowers and lenders Losses: $200 billion; widely dispersed

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Borrowers Financial Intermediaries Investors The Modern Financial Reality

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Spiraling Downward Subprime losses prompt investor and lender flight Rating agencies wade in with downgrades CDO/ABCP: acronyms to be avoided Selling to raise cash/capital Rumor travels faster than fact Poor information + shifting risk appetites freeze some markets

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Corporate Creditworthiness Composite of Credit Default Swaps Source: Bloomberg

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 New Debt Issues Source: SIFMA

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Source: Federal Reserve Commercial and Industrial Loans All Commercial Banks Annualized Growth: 13% Annualized Growth: 27%

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Tightening the Vise? Rating Agencies Congress Bond Insurers Regulators?

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Senior Loan Officer Survey: Commercial Real Estate Net Percentage of Respondents Tightening Credit Source: Federal Reserve Highest on record

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Impacts on Venture Capital/Private Equity Difficult to raise debt; difficult to sell companies — Capital more costly or simply unavailable — Covenants tighter More inward focus: managing existing deals as opposed to seeking new ones Smaller deals, more minority interest Robin Hood economics: the discussion of carried interest  More restrictions just when we need fresh capital the most?!

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Signs of Investor Conservatism This money will eventually have to go back to work!

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Conclusions: Credit We’re working to avoid a credit crunch Wall Street firms remain under stress; high vulnerability to event risk Effect on community banks has been limited, but translation from Wall Street down to Main Street is possible We’re seeing the downside of the modern financial markets

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Real Personal Consumption Year over Year Change

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Employment Trends Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Mr. Bernanke’s Big Test Doesn’t want to reward reckless behaviorDoesn’t want to reward reckless behavior Expansion is less secureExpansion is less secure Inflation above comfort zoneInflation above comfort zone The financial system came close to melting downThe financial system came close to melting down  Tough choices, but pulling out all stops

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 The Scorecard

Pregnant Pause, April 2008 Conclusions The housing slump is deeper and longer lasting than most expected After-shocks are still being sorted out; capital markets still not functioning well Some forward momentum has been lost We’ve traditionally underestimated the resilience of the US economy After this “pregnant pause,” the expansion should continue

A Pregnant Pause Economic Prospects for the Remainder of 2008 Carl R. Tannenbaum Economic Consultant