Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research 1 Peter Nijkamp 28 November 2006 “As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality they are not certain;

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Presentation transcript:

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research 1 Peter Nijkamp 28 November 2006 “As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.” (Albert Einstein)

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research 2 A new challenge What is the space-economy? First law of geography (Tobler) Gravity law (Newton) Simplicity versus complexity

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research 3 Ceteris paribus and the space-economy Complex discovery tour and simple assumptions Cf. maps and models Abstraction Ceteris paribus (1311!) Marshall’s partial equilibrium analysis Partial cause-effect relationships (Black Box)

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research 4 Spatial interaction in open systems Space time interaction Spatio-temporal autocorrelation Connectivity in network structures Evolution and dissipative structures (Prigogine) Endogeneity and causality specification Complex spatial dynamics and ceteris paribus

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research 5 Spacial-economic complexity Principles of complexity theory Path dependency versus feedbacks Bifurcation, catastrophe, chaos, synergetics Complex solution trajectories Drivers:resilience sustainability evolutionary principles - Volterra-Lotka - predator-prey - May - symbiosus - niche - self-organisation

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research 6 Search for behaviourial paradigm - optimizer - bounded rationality - learning principles (survival) - simulation Spacial-economic complexity (2) “Learning is …..a growth, where every act of knowledge develops the learner, thus making him capable of constituting ever more and more complex objectivities.” (Husserl)

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research 7 Principles of spacial-economic equilibrium Mathematical rigor ‘rigor mortis’ CGE Lösch Isard Leontief Kaldor’s Okun Memorial lecture Interactive economics?

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research 8 The methodology of spatial economics revisited Evolutionary ecology Specification analysis Artificial intelligence - computational neural networks - self-organised criticality - adaptive learning models Counterfactional analysis Value transfer / meta-analysis Micro-behavioural basis Modelling as cognitive science? “The mecca of the economist lies in economic biology.” (Alfred Marshall, 1896)