2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum USDA Outlook for the 2011 U.S. Farm Economy Timothy Park Farm and Rural Business Branch Resource and Rural Economics Division.

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Presentation transcript:

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum USDA Outlook for the 2011 U.S. Farm Economy Timothy Park Farm and Rural Business Branch Resource and Rural Economics Division

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Value of agricultural sector production expected to increase $37.4 billion in 2011 Value of agricultural sector production Value of crop production Value of livestock production Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Real value of projected agricultural sector production up 8.8 percent in 2011 Value of agricultural sector production Value of crop production Value of livestock production Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Crop cash receipts projected up $24.1 billion Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Livestock cash receipts projected up $4.3 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts $ Billion

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Farm businesses represent almost 850,000 farms and account for 94 percent of production Farm Businesses Small farms with sales less than $250,000 whose operators report farming as their ajor occupation. Farms with sales greater than $250,000 and farms organized as nonfamily corporations or cooperatives. Small farms whose operators report they are retired or they had a major occupation other than farming. 1,344, , ,795

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Higher average net cash incomes projected in 2011 for crop farm businesses Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Average net cash incomes for livestock farm businesses expected to recede in 2011 Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum 9 Regional disparity for farm business income prospects in 2011 The farm level forecasts are derived from partial budget modeling on the 2009 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) using parameters from the sector forecasts.

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum 10 Government payments forecast at $10.6 billion --- lowest since 1997 $ Billion Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum expenses expected up 6.8% ** 3 rd largest increase since the late 1970’s ** Percent Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Purchased input expenses projected up $16.4 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Farm origin expenses projected up $5.2 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Manufactured input expenses forecast up $6.1 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Payments to stakeholders expected to rise $2.7 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum real assets and equity anticipated to surpass 2007 peak values Real farm sector assets, debt, and equity f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Share of farm assets financed by debt expected to decline in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum 2011fChange from 2010f Value Agricultural Sector Production $391.5$37.4 Purchased Inputs ( - ) $211.8$16.4 Net Government Transactions ( - ) ($0.9)($1.9) Gross Value Added = $178.8$19.1 Capital Consumption ( - ) $31.4$0.8 Net Value Added = $147.4$18.4 Payments to Stakeholders ( - ) $52.7$2.7 Net Farm Income = $94.7$15.7 Net farm income expected to rise in 2011 $ Billion Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum SUMMARY

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum / Farm Income and Costs Overview 2011 Farm Sector Income Forecast (Updated 2/14/11) 2009 Farm Sector Income Estimates (Updated 8/31/10) Farm Business Income Assets, Debt, and Wealth Farms Receiving Government Payments Data Sources Recommended Readings Recommended Data Glossary Debt Landscape for U.S. Farms Has Shifted Sign up for ERS Charts of Note Briefing Room: Farm Income and Costs

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum USDA Outlook for the 2011 U.S. Farm Economy Timothy Park Farm and Rural Business Branch Resource and Rural Economics Division

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Farm sector profitability improves in 2011 Nominal and inflation adjusted net farm income, f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Purchased input expenditures projected up $16.4 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Farm origin expenses projected up $5.2 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Manufacturing input expenses projected up $6.1 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

2011 USDA Ag Outlook Forum Payments to stakeholders projected up $2.7 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts