Alternative Hypothesis of Cross-Country Convergence. A Non-Parametric Analysis of Manufacturing Sectors. Silvia Dal Bianco University of Oxford and University.

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Presentation transcript:

Alternative Hypothesis of Cross-Country Convergence. A Non-Parametric Analysis of Manufacturing Sectors. Silvia Dal Bianco University of Oxford and University of Pavia

3 Competitive Hypothesis of Convergence Absolute convergence (Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1995); Conditional convergence (Barro 1991, Mankiw, Romer and Weil 1992, Dorwick and Rogers 2002); Club Convergence (Baumol 1986, Galor and Zeira 1993, Quah 1996) Variable of interest: log(Y ijt /Y USjt ) Data.ppt Lall Technological Taxonomy.ppt Methodology.ppt

Distribution dynamics: Interpretation of Results Transition probabilities: 3d, medium run Graphs Scale.ppt

Transition probabilities: 2d, medium run Distribution dynamics: Interpretation of Results ctd

Ergodic Distribution: Long Run Distribution dynamics: Interpretation of Results ctd

Alternative hypothesis of convergence: testing 1.Absolute 2.Conditional Steady state proxies: r, h, ddev 3.Club Steady state proxies plus Unimodal Ergodic: Absolute Convergence not rejected Non-Unimodal Ergodic: Absolute Convergence rejected Unimodal Ergodic: Conditional Convergence not rejected Non-Unimodal Ergodic: Conditional Convergence rejected Unimodal Ergodic: Clubs due to K Non-Unimodal Ergodic: Clubs due K rejected Unimodal Ergodic: Clubs due to Tech. Non-Unimodal Ergodic: Clubs due to Tech. rejected K stock TFPgap & absorption capabilities

Results 3 Stylised facts: 1.Productivity differences smoothening (absolute conv.); 2.Leader overtaking (conditional conv.); 3.No conditional convergence Sectoral Heterogeneity 1.Resource Based and Low Tech: Clubs due to Technology 2.Medium Tech: Clubs due to both K and Technology 3.High Tech and Manufacturing: Absolute Convergence Synopsis of Results.ppt

Further lines of research 1.Convergence tendencies among developing countries; 2.Innovative activity of developed countries; 3.Manufacturing vs Services; 4.Within-country analysis (Dal Bianco, 2007,in progress).