Prof. Akio Morishima 1 Asian Role in Global Climate Policy Professor Akio Morishima Chair, Japan Climate Policy Centre Special Research Advisor for IGES 18 October 2008 World Academy of Art and Science: General Assembly 2008 Aalankrita Resort and Conference Center, Hyderabad, India

2 Asia and the Pacific Today Diverse and Rapidly Changing Dynamics and Vulnerability Asia and Climate Policy

3 Asia and the Pacific Population: 4 billion people, 60 % of World Population Land mass: 24% of the world land mass Forest area: 14% of the world forest area GDP growth rate since the 80s: remained over 6% (while the annual world GDP growth rates fluctuated between 2-3%)

4 Rapid Economic Growth (1) Source: East-West Center GDP per Capita ($US)

5 Rapid Economic Growth (2) Source: East-West Center The Annual GDP growth rate in the region least 20 years is over 6% But economic growth rate is uneven among countries. Income inequality has increased not only among countries but also within a country. 800 million people who live on less than one dollar a day still live in this region.

6 Economic Development Estimates Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

7 Demographic Expansion (1) "Sustainable Asia 2005 and Beyond - In the pursuit of innovative policies" IGES(2005)

8 Demographic Expansion (2) "Sustainable Asia 2005 and Beyond - In the pursuit of innovative policies" IGES(2005) Urbanization 9 out of 23 mega cities with over 10 million inhabitants in the world exist in the region. Hundreds of large cities with millions inhabitants scatter all over the region. Most of the large cities do not have infrastructure to provide residents with minimum social and sanitary services. These large cities face urban environmental problems

9 Growing Energy Demand (1) Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

10 Growing Energy Demand (2) The fourth Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4) (2007)

11 Increasing CO 2 emissions (1) The fourth Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4) (2007)

12 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Increasing CO2 emissions(2)

13 European Communities (2003) Increasing CO2 emissions (3)

14 Increasing CO2 Emission (4) 3.9Gt 4.6Gt 5.9Gt 7.3Gt 10.2Gt 4.3Gt 3.3Gt 12.7Gt 8.2Gt 1.1 Gt 1.3Gt 1.2Gt Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 (International Energy Agency)

15 Estimated Key Impacts in Asia by Global Warming CategoryKey Impacts Agriculture 30% decline of crop production by 2050, resulting in a higher rate of starvation in south Asia Water Disappearance of glacier in the Tibetan Plateau by 4 km due to the increase of air temperature by 3 degrees. Yearly water supply of India will decrease from 1820m 3 to 1140m 3 by 2050, affecting 1 hundred million people of India. Health Increase in rates of outbreak of Cholera in south Asia and of diarrhea across Asia. Costal/ Marine/ Ecology Disappearance of 2500 km2 of Mangrove forests due to 1 meter Sea-level rise Higher risk of floods in 5000 km2 watershed of Red River Delta and 15-20,000 km2 watershed of Mekong River Disappearance of Coral reef by 30% in Asia in next 30 years Source: IPCC, 2007

16 GHG mitigation potentials in 2020 “Second IGES White Paper Climate Change Policies in the Asia-Pacific: Re-uniting Climate Change and Sustainable Development " IGES(2008)

17 END Thank you for your attention. Professor Akio Morishima Chair, Japan Climate Policy Centre Special Research Advisor for IGES